HMS Networks Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of HMSS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

HMSS (SEK451) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (SEK504.75)

Is HMSS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HMSS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow

Simply Wall St

SEK 504.75

Fair Value

10.6% undervalued

Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: HMSS (SEK451) is trading below our estimate of fair value (SEK504.75)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HMSS is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HMSS?

Key metric: As HMSS is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HMSS. This is calculated by dividing HMSS's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HMSS's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	83.1x
Earnings	SEK 310.00m
Market Cap	SEK 25.77b

HMSS key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	9.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	36.3x
PEG Ratio	2.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HMSS's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HMSS vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	38.1x
SPT Spirent Communications	99.8x	36.2%	UK£1.1b
FTC Filtronic	19.5x	-34.7%	UK£203.1m
MWE M.T.I Wireless Edge	11.6x	2.7%	UK£40.5m
OXIG Oxford Instruments	21.3x	10.7%	UK£1.1b
HMSS HMS Networks	83.1x	31.9%	SEK 25.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HMSS is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (83.1x) compared to the peer average (38.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HMSS's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Communications Industry?

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

0 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HMSS is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (83.1x) compared to the European Communications industry average (22.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HMSS's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HMSS PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	83.1x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate HMSS's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HMSS forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	n/a	SEK 546.75 0%	11.3%	SEK 630.00	SEK 475.00	n/a	4
Feb ’26	n/a	SEK 546.75 0%	11.3%	SEK 630.00	SEK 475.00	n/a	4
Jan ’26	n/a	SEK 500.00 0%	16.3%	SEK 600.00	SEK 400.00	n/a	3
Dec ’25	n/a	SEK 457.50 0%	12.6%	SEK 515.00	SEK 400.00	n/a	2
Nov ’25	n/a	SEK 457.50 0%	12.6%	SEK 515.00	SEK 400.00	n/a	2
Aug ’25	n/a	SEK 512.50 0%	3.4%	SEK 530.00	SEK 495.00	n/a	2
Jul ’25	n/a	SEK 515.00 0%	3.9%	SEK 535.00	SEK 495.00	n/a	2
Jun ’25	n/a	SEK 517.50 0%	4.3%	SEK 540.00	SEK 495.00	n/a	2
May ’25	n/a	SEK 517.50 0%	4.3%	SEK 540.00	SEK 495.00	n/a	2
Apr ’25	n/a	SEK 472.50 0%	4.8%	SEK 495.00	SEK 450.00	n/a	2
Mar ’25	n/a	SEK 472.50 0%	4.8%	SEK 495.00	SEK 450.00	n/a	2
Feb ’25	SEK 480.00	SEK 472.50 -1.6%	4.8%	SEK 495.00	SEK 450.00	n/a	2
Jan ’25	n/a	SEK 425.00 0%	7.1%	SEK 455.00	SEK 395.00	n/a	2
Dec ’24	n/a	SEK 425.00 0%	7.1%	SEK 455.00	SEK 395.00	n/a	2
Nov ’24	n/a	SEK 450.00 0%	9.6%	SEK 500.00	SEK 395.00	n/a	3
Oct ’24	n/a	SEK 476.67 0%	3.9%	SEK 500.00	SEK 455.00	n/a	3
Sep ’24	n/a	SEK 485.00 0%	4.4%	SEK 500.00	SEK 455.00	n/a	3
Aug ’24	n/a	SEK 485.00 0%	4.4%	SEK 500.00	SEK 455.00	n/a	3
Jul ’24	SEK 531.50	SEK 492.00 -7.4%	5.3%	SEK 515.00	SEK 448.00	n/a	4
Jun ’24	SEK 494.80	SEK 471.67 -4.7%	4.3%	SEK 500.00	SEK 455.00	n/a	3
May ’24	n/a	SEK 471.67 0%	4.3%	SEK 500.00	SEK 455.00	n/a	3
Apr ’24	SEK 411.20	SEK 426.67 +3.8%	12.5%	SEK 500.00	SEK 375.00	n/a	3
Mar ’24	n/a	SEK 426.67 0%	12.5%	SEK 500.00	SEK 375.00	n/a	3
Feb ’24	n/a	SEK 426.67 0%	12.5%	SEK 500.00	SEK 375.00	SEK 480.00	3

Analyst Price Target

Consensus Narrative from 4 Analysts

SEK 480.20

Fair Value

6.1% undervalued

Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2025/02/08 20:36
End of Day Share Price	2025/01/22 00:00
Earnings	2024/12/31
Annual Earnings	2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

HMS Networks AB (publ) is covered by 8 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
null null	ABG Sundal Collier
Fredrik Nilsson	ABG Sundal Collier Sponsored
Thibault Morel	Bryan Garnier & Co