Gooch & Housego PLC (LON:GHH) Stock Is Going Strong But Fundamentals Look Uncertain: What Lies Ahead ?

Most readers would already be aware that Gooch & Housego's (LON:GHH) stock increased significantly by 18% over the past three months. But the company's key financial indicators appear to be differing across the board and that makes us question whether or not the company's current share price momentum can be maintained. Specifically, we decided to study Gooch & Housego's ROE in this article.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

See our latest analysis for Gooch & Housego

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Gooch & Housego is:

3.3% = UK£3.8m ÷ UK£113m (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2020).

The 'return' is the yearly profit. Another way to think of that is that for every £1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn £0.03 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

A Side By Side comparison of Gooch & Housego's Earnings Growth And 3.3% ROE

At first glance, Gooch & Housego's ROE doesn't look very promising. A quick further study shows that the company's ROE doesn't compare favorably to the industry average of 8.6% either. For this reason, Gooch & Housego's five year net income decline of 13% is not surprising given its lower ROE. We believe that there also might be other aspects that are negatively influencing the company's earnings prospects. Such as - low earnings retention or poor allocation of capital.

However, when we compared Gooch & Housego's growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 18% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. Is Gooch & Housego fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

Is Gooch & Housego Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

While the company did payout a portion of its dividend in the past, it currently doesn't pay a dividend. This implies that potentially all of its profits are being reinvested in the business.

Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company is expected to drop to 29% over the next three years. Accordingly, the expected drop in the payout ratio explains the expected increase in the company's ROE to 10.0%, over the same period.

Summary

In total, we're a bit ambivalent about Gooch & Housego's performance. Even though it appears to be retaining most of its profits, given the low ROE, investors may not be benefitting from all that reinvestment after all. The low earnings growth suggests our theory correct. Having said that, looking at current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings growth rate is expected to see a huge improvement. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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