Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (LON:KSPI) After Its Yearly Results

Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (LON:KSPI) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 4.7% to US$75.10 in the week after its latest full-year results. It was a pretty good result, with revenues of ₸1.3t, and Kaspi.kz came in a solid 17% ahead of expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Kaspi.kz

Taking into account the latest results, Kaspi.kz's six analysts currently expect revenues in 2023 to be ₸1.26t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 25% to ₸3,868. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of ₸1.37t and earnings per share (EPS) of ₸3,782 in 2023. So it's pretty clear that while sentiment around revenues has declined following the latest results, the analysts are now more bullish on the company's earnings power.

There's been no real change to the average price target of US$93.12, with the lower revenue and higher earnings forecasts not expected to meaningfully impact the company's valuation over a longer timeframe. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Kaspi.kz at US$102 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$75.12. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 1.0% by the end of 2023. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 29% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 14% per year. It's pretty clear that Kaspi.kz's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Kaspi.kz's earnings potential next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Kaspi.kz analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Kaspi.kz has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.