Alfa Financial Software Holdings PLC

BATS-CHIXE:ALFAL Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£643.4m

Alfa Financial Software Holdings Valuation

Is ALFAL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ALFAL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ALFAL (£2.18) is trading above our estimate of fair value (£1.74)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ALFAL is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ALFAL?

Key metric: As ALFAL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ALFAL. This is calculated by dividing ALFAL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ALFAL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio29.1x
EarningsUK£22.10m
Market CapUK£643.36m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ALFAL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ALFAL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average49.4x
CER Cerillion
35.8x8.5%UK£546.4m
GBG GB Group
114.6x36.6%UK£932.8m
BYIT Bytes Technology Group
21.1x6.7%UK£1.1b
DOTD dotdigital Group
26.1x10.5%UK£288.4m
ALFAL Alfa Financial Software Holdings
29.1x6.3%UK£643.4m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ALFAL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.1x) compared to the peer average (49.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ALFAL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Software Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
SORT Sorted Group Holdings
3xn/aUS$5.46m
No more companies available in this PE range
No. of Companies6PE020406080100+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ALFAL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.1x) compared to the UK Software industry average (35.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ALFAL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ALFAL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio29.1x
Fair PE Ratio32.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ALFAL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (32.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ALFAL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£2.18
UK£2.56
+17.2%
4.6%UK£2.72UK£2.40n/a4
Nov ’25UK£2.21
UK£2.45
+10.7%
8.0%UK£2.65UK£2.15n/a4
Oct ’25UK£1.99
UK£2.45
+23.1%
8.0%UK£2.65UK£2.15n/a4
Sep ’25UK£1.95
UK£2.20
+13.1%
5.3%UK£2.40UK£2.10n/a4
Aug ’25UK£1.93
UK£2.20
+13.8%
5.3%UK£2.40UK£2.10n/a4
Jul ’25UK£1.88
UK£2.20
+17.0%
5.3%UK£2.40UK£2.10n/a4
Jun ’25UK£1.77
UK£2.20
+24.4%
5.3%UK£2.40UK£2.10n/a4
May ’25UK£1.73
UK£2.20
+27.2%
5.3%UK£2.40UK£2.10n/a4
Apr ’25UK£1.67
UK£2.20
+32.1%
5.3%UK£2.40UK£2.10n/a4
Mar ’25UK£1.74
UK£2.20
+26.8%
5.3%UK£2.40UK£2.10n/a4
Feb ’25UK£1.70
UK£2.20
+29.8%
5.3%UK£2.40UK£2.10n/a4
Jan ’25UK£1.40
UK£2.20
+57.1%
5.3%UK£2.40UK£2.10n/a4
Dec ’24UK£1.54
UK£2.20
+43.3%
5.3%UK£2.40UK£2.10n/a4
Nov ’24UK£1.50
UK£2.20
+46.7%
5.3%UK£2.40UK£2.10UK£2.214
Oct ’24UK£1.83
UK£2.22
+21.1%
5.9%UK£2.40UK£2.10UK£1.993
Sep ’24UK£1.51
UK£2.20
+46.2%
5.3%UK£2.40UK£2.10UK£1.954
Aug ’24UK£1.56
UK£2.20
+41.5%
5.3%UK£2.40UK£2.10UK£1.934
Jul ’24UK£1.93
UK£2.20
+14.0%
6.4%UK£2.40UK£2.10UK£1.883
Jun ’24UK£1.61
UK£2.19
+35.9%
5.7%UK£2.40UK£2.10UK£1.774
May ’24UK£1.43
UK£2.19
+53.5%
5.7%UK£2.40UK£2.10UK£1.734
Apr ’24UK£1.36
UK£2.20
+62.4%
6.4%UK£2.40UK£2.10UK£1.673
Mar ’24UK£1.61
UK£2.14
+33.2%
1.9%UK£2.20UK£2.10UK£1.744
Feb ’24UK£1.78
UK£2.14
+20.4%
1.9%UK£2.20UK£2.10UK£1.704
Jan ’24UK£1.65
UK£2.15
+30.5%
1.9%UK£2.20UK£2.10UK£1.403
Dec ’23UK£1.62
UK£2.15
+33.1%
1.9%UK£2.20UK£2.10UK£1.543
Nov ’23UK£1.50
UK£2.15
+43.8%
1.9%UK£2.20UK£2.10UK£1.503

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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