Estimating The Fair Value Of Microlise Group plc (LON:SAAS)

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Microlise Group plc (LON:SAAS) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

Check out our latest analysis for Microlise Group

The model

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
Levered FCF (£, Millions)	UK£3.74m	UK£5.41m	UK£5.81m	UK£6.13m	UK£6.38m	UK£6.58m	UK£6.75m	UK£6.88m	UK£6.99m	UK£7.09m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ 7.45%	Est @ 5.48%	Est @ 4.1%	Est @ 3.13%	Est @ 2.46%	Est @ 1.98%	Est @ 1.65%	Est @ 1.42%
Present Value (£, Millions) Discounted @ 6.0%	UK£3.5	UK£4.8	UK£4.9	UK£4.9	UK£4.8	UK£4.6	UK£4.5	UK£4.3	UK£4.1	UK£4.0

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = UK£44m

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 0.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.0%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₁ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = UK£7.1m× (1 + 0.9%) ÷ (6.0%– 0.9%) = UK£140m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= UK£140m÷ ( 1 + 6.0%)¹⁰= UK£78m

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is UK£122m. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of UK£1.2, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

Important assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Microlise Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.057. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Moving On:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Microlise Group, we've compiled three pertinent elements you should assess:

1. Risks: For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Microlise Group (1 shouldn't be ignored) you should be aware of.
2. Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for SAAS's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every British stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.