Stock Analysis

Investors in Netcall (LON:NET) have seen impressive returns of 120% over the past three years

Published
AIM:NET

Netcall plc (LON:NET) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 21% in the last quarter. But in three years the returns have been great. In three years the stock price has launched 116% higher: a great result. So the recent fall in the share price should be viewed in that context. The fundamental business performance will ultimately dictate whether the top is in, or if this is a stellar buying opportunity.

Now it's worth having a look at the company's fundamentals too, because that will help us determine if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.

See our latest analysis for Netcall

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Netcall was able to grow its EPS at 103% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. This EPS growth is higher than the 29% average annual increase in the share price. Therefore, it seems the market has moderated its expectations for growth, somewhat.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

AIM:NET Earnings Per Share Growth August 23rd 2023

It is of course excellent to see how Netcall has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Netcall the TSR over the last 3 years was 120%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

While it's certainly disappointing to see that Netcall shares lost 1.8% throughout the year, that wasn't as bad as the market loss of 2.5%. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 4%, each year, over five years. It could be that the business is just facing some short term problems, but shareholders should keep a close eye on the fundamentals. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Netcall better, we need to consider many other factors. Take risks, for example - Netcall has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on British exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Netcall is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.