Estimating The Fair Value Of Dillistone Group Plc (LON:DSG)

Key Insights

• Dillistone Group's estimated fair value is UK£0.17 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Dillistone Group's UK£0.15 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
• The average premium for Dillistone Group's competitorsis currently 23%

Does the August share price for Dillistone Group Plc (LON:DSG) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Dillistone Group

Crunching The Numbers

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (£, Millions)	UK£234.0k	UK£246.3k	UK£256.3k	UK£264.7k	UK£271.9k	UK£278.2k	UK£283.8k	UK£289.0k	UK£293.9k	UK£298.6k
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ 6.90%	Est @ 5.24%	Est @ 4.08%	Est @ 3.27%	Est @ 2.71%	Est @ 2.31%	Est @ 2.03%	Est @ 1.83%	Est @ 1.70%	Est @ 1.60%
Present Value (£, Millions) Discounted @ 9.2%	UK£0.2	UK£0.2	UK£0.2	UK£0.2	UK£0.2	UK£0.2	UK£0.2	UK£0.1	UK£0.1	UK£0.1

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = UK£1.7m

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.4%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.2%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = UK£299k× (1 + 1.4%) ÷ (9.2%– 1.4%) = UK£3.9m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= UK£3.9m÷ ( 1 + 9.2%)¹⁰= UK£1.6m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is UK£3.3m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of UK£0.2, the company appears about fair value at a 8.0% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Dillistone Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.319. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Moving On:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Dillistone Group, we've put together three fundamental factors you should further examine:

1. Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Dillistone Group you should know about.
2. Future Earnings: How does DSG's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the AIM every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.