Optimistic Investors Push NEXT plc (LON:NXT) Shares Up 25% But Growth Is Lacking

NEXT plc (LON:NXT) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 25% share price jump in the last month. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 36% in the last year.

Following the firm bounce in price, given around half the companies in the United Kingdom have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 15x, you may consider NEXT as a stock to potentially avoid with its 19x P/E ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 15 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit.

NEXT hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining earnings compare poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth on average. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this poor earnings performance will turn the corner. If not, then existing shareholders may be extremely nervous about the viability of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for NEXT

Keen to find out how analysts think NEXT's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

NEXT's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 6.9%. Regardless, EPS has managed to lift by a handy 19% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the earlier period of growth. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the earnings growth recently has been mostly respectable for the company.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 8.8% per annum during the coming three years according to the analysts following the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 16% per annum, which is noticeably more attractive.

With this information, we find it concerning that NEXT is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Key Takeaway

NEXT shares have received a push in the right direction, but its P/E is elevated too. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of NEXT's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for NEXT you should know about.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.