Dunelm Group plc

LSE:DNLM Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£2.2b

Dunelm Group Valuation

Is DNLM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of DNLM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: DNLM (£10.78) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£15.48)

Significantly Below Fair Value: DNLM is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for DNLM?

Key metric: As DNLM is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for DNLM. This is calculated by dividing DNLM's market cap by their current earnings.
What is DNLM's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio14.4x
EarningsUK£151.20m
Market CapUK£2.18b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does DNLM's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for DNLM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average33.2x
SCS ScS Group
21.5x26.7%UK£95.6m
FRAS Frasers Group
8.6x13.2%UK£2.7b
WOSG Watches of Switzerland Group
33.2x27.7%UK£1.4b
PROC ProCook Group
69.6x79.6%UK£36.6m
DNLM Dunelm Group
14.4x5.2%UK£2.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: DNLM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.4x) compared to the peer average (33.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does DNLM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Specialty Retail Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
WRKS TheWorks.co.uk
2xn/aUS$16.22m
No more companies available in this PE range
DNLM 14.4xIndustry Avg. 14.2xNo. of Companies4PE01020304050+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: DNLM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.4x) compared to the UK Specialty Retail industry average (14.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is DNLM's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

DNLM PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14.4x
Fair PE Ratio14.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: DNLM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst DNLM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£10.78
UK£12.82
+18.9%
6.4%UK£14.30UK£11.70n/a11
Dec ’25UK£11.44
UK£12.69
+10.9%
7.0%UK£14.30UK£11.60n/a11
Nov ’25UK£11.26
UK£12.84
+14.0%
7.7%UK£14.70UK£11.60n/a12
Oct ’25UK£11.48
UK£12.74
+11.0%
8.9%UK£14.70UK£11.20n/a11
Sep ’25UK£12.45
UK£12.27
-1.4%
9.2%UK£14.10UK£10.60n/a11
Aug ’25UK£12.41
UK£12.27
-1.1%
9.2%UK£14.10UK£10.60n/a11
Jul ’25UK£10.59
UK£11.71
+10.5%
11.0%UK£14.10UK£10.00n/a11
Jun ’25UK£11.01
UK£11.75
+6.7%
10.5%UK£14.10UK£10.00n/a12
May ’25UK£9.89
UK£11.75
+18.9%
10.5%UK£14.10UK£10.00n/a12
Apr ’25UK£11.32
UK£11.98
+5.9%
9.7%UK£14.10UK£10.50n/a12
Mar ’25UK£11.60
UK£11.98
+3.3%
9.7%UK£14.10UK£10.50n/a12
Feb ’25UK£10.89
UK£11.99
+10.1%
9.6%UK£14.10UK£10.50n/a12
Jan ’25UK£10.97
UK£11.93
+8.8%
9.4%UK£13.75UK£10.45n/a12
Dec ’24UK£10.50
UK£11.93
+13.6%
9.4%UK£13.75UK£10.45UK£11.4412
Nov ’24UK£9.78
UK£12.14
+24.2%
10.5%UK£14.00UK£10.00UK£11.2612
Oct ’24UK£10.50
UK£12.16
+15.8%
10.2%UK£14.00UK£10.00UK£11.4814
Sep ’24UK£11.45
UK£12.41
+8.4%
8.9%UK£14.00UK£10.00UK£12.4514
Aug ’24UK£11.65
UK£12.45
+6.8%
9.4%UK£14.50UK£10.00UK£12.4114
Jul ’24UK£11.21
UK£12.55
+11.9%
8.5%UK£14.50UK£10.50UK£10.5914
Jun ’24UK£11.17
UK£12.52
+12.1%
8.7%UK£14.50UK£10.50UK£11.0114
May ’24UK£11.46
UK£12.47
+8.8%
8.8%UK£14.50UK£10.50UK£9.8913
Apr ’24UK£11.05
UK£12.42
+12.4%
8.9%UK£14.50UK£10.50UK£11.3212
Mar ’24UK£12.45
UK£12.41
-0.3%
9.3%UK£14.50UK£10.50UK£11.6011
Feb ’24UK£11.78
UK£11.11
-5.7%
19.5%UK£13.75UK£7.00UK£10.8910
Jan ’24UK£9.79
UK£9.87
+0.8%
19.7%UK£13.75UK£7.00UK£10.9711
Dec ’23UK£10.07
UK£9.74
-3.3%
22.1%UK£13.75UK£7.00UK£10.5011

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/24 18:06
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/24 00:00
Earnings2024/06/29
Annual Earnings2024/06/29

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Dunelm Group plc is covered by 31 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Louise RichardsonArden Partners Plc.
Richard TaylorBarclays
Christodoulos ChaviarasBarclays