NEXT plc

BATS-CHIXE:NXTL Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£11.6b

NEXT Valuation

Is NXTL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NXTL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NXTL (£97.92) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£116.66)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NXTL is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NXTL?

Key metric: As NXTL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NXTL. This is calculated by dividing NXTL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NXTL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio14.4x
EarningsUK£803.40m
Market CapUK£11.60b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NXTL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NXTL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.8x
BME B&M European Value Retail
10.6x11.1%UK£3.5b
JD. JD Sports Fashion
15.3x24.9%UK£5.2b
KGF Kingfisher
13.2x10.4%UK£4.5b
FRAS Frasers Group
8.3x9.3%UK£3.2b
NXTL NEXT
14.4x2.6%UK£11.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NXTL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.4x) compared to the peer average (11.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NXTL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Multiline Retail Industry?

6 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No. of Companies20PE01632486480+
6 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NXTL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.4x) compared to the Global Multiline Retail industry average (20.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NXTL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NXTL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14.4x
Fair PE Ratio16.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NXTL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NXTL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£97.92
UK£101.15
+3.3%
11.7%UK£118.00UK£60.00n/a18
Nov ’25UK£98.98
UK£100.98
+2.0%
11.7%UK£118.00UK£60.00n/a18
Oct ’25UK£98.60
UK£98.61
+0.01%
12.7%UK£118.00UK£60.00n/a17
Sep ’25UK£101.60
UK£95.73
-5.8%
11.3%UK£114.00UK£60.00n/a18
Aug ’25UK£97.92
UK£92.38
-5.7%
11.4%UK£110.00UK£60.00n/a17
Jul ’25UK£91.52
UK£92.42
+1.0%
10.2%UK£107.00UK£65.00n/a17
Jun ’25UK£93.31
UK£91.81
-1.6%
9.8%UK£107.00UK£65.00n/a19
May ’25UK£90.42
UK£91.71
+1.4%
9.8%UK£107.00UK£65.00n/a19
Apr ’25UK£92.44
UK£86.65
-6.3%
11.6%UK£107.00UK£65.00n/a19
Mar ’25UK£84.16
UK£84.44
+0.3%
11.1%UK£100.00UK£65.00n/a20
Feb ’25UK£82.92
UK£84.44
+1.8%
11.1%UK£100.00UK£65.00n/a20
Jan ’25UK£81.34
UK£77.78
-4.4%
8.8%UK£89.70UK£60.00n/a20
Dec ’24UK£80.74
UK£77.35
-4.2%
8.7%UK£89.70UK£60.00n/a20
Nov ’24UK£71.88
UK£76.56
+6.5%
9.1%UK£89.70UK£60.00UK£98.9820
Oct ’24UK£73.32
UK£75.19
+2.5%
9.8%UK£89.70UK£57.00UK£98.6021
Sep ’24UK£70.24
UK£72.97
+3.9%
9.5%UK£89.70UK£57.00UK£101.6022
Aug ’24UK£69.86
UK£71.69
+2.6%
10.4%UK£88.00UK£55.79UK£97.9223
Jul ’24UK£69.20
UK£71.30
+3.0%
10.1%UK£88.00UK£55.79UK£91.5223
Jun ’24UK£64.00
UK£68.66
+7.3%
10.0%UK£81.40UK£54.00UK£93.3121
May ’24UK£67.30
UK£68.66
+2.0%
10.0%UK£81.40UK£54.00UK£90.4221
Apr ’24UK£65.50
UK£68.55
+4.7%
10.5%UK£81.40UK£54.00UK£92.4421
Mar ’24UK£68.90
UK£67.38
-2.2%
11.8%UK£79.00UK£48.50UK£84.1622
Feb ’24UK£66.82
UK£65.68
-1.7%
10.5%UK£75.00UK£48.50UK£82.9222
Jan ’24UK£58.38
UK£61.38
+5.1%
10.1%UK£75.00UK£48.50UK£81.3422
Dec ’23UK£57.88
UK£61.27
+5.9%
10.7%UK£75.00UK£48.50UK£80.7422
Nov ’23UK£49.36
UK£62.06
+25.7%
12.3%UK£81.00UK£48.50UK£71.8821

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

Discover undervalued companies

Frasers Group

UK£3.3b

Frasers Group Plc, together with its subsidiaries, retails sports and leisure clothing, footwear, homeware, furniture, sports equipment and bicycles, accessories, and apparel through department stores, shops, and online in the United Kingdom, Europe, the United States, Asia, Oceania, and internationally.

FRAS

UK£7.50

7D

0.07%

1Y

-15.1%

Alibaba Group Holding

US$189.0b

Through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses to engage with their users and customers in the People's Republic of China and internationally.

AHLAD

US$80.10

7D

-4.0%

1Y

12.0%

Inchcape

UK£3.1b

Operates as an automotive distributor and retailer.

INCH

UK£7.60

7D

1.1%

1Y

17.0%