Tritax Big Box REIT (LSE:BBOX) - Share price, News & Analysis

BBOX fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	4/6
Future Growth	1/6
Past Performance	4/6
Financial Health	3/6
Dividends	3/6

BBOX Stock Overview

Rewards

Trading at 30.1% below our estimate of its fair value

Revenue is forecast to grow 9.28% per year

Earnings have grown 38% per year over the past 5 years

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 17.9% per year for the next 3 years

Unstable dividend track record

Large one-off items impacting financial results

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

Tritax Big Box REIT Competitors

SEGRO

LSE:SGRO

UK£13.4b

LondonMetric Property

LSE:LMP

UK£2.4b

Land Securities Group

LSE:LAND

UK£5.4b

British Land

LSE:BLND

UK£4.6b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Tritax Big Box REIT
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	UK£2.04
52 Week High	UK£2.52
52 Week Low	UK£1.91
Beta	0.68
1 Month Change	-16.80%
3 Month Change	-11.23%
1 Year Change	6.47%
3 Year Change	34.30%
5 Year Change	41.57%
Change since IPO	102.99%

Shareholder Returns

	BBOX	GB REITs	GB Market
7D	3.9%	0.7%	0.2%
1Y	6.5%	0.6%	-3.8%

Return vs Industry: BBOX exceeded the UK REITs industry which returned 0.6% over the past year.

Return vs Market: BBOX exceeded the UK Market which returned -3.8% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is BBOX's price volatile compared to industry and market?
BBOX volatility
BBOX Average Weekly Movement	4.8%
REITs Industry Average Movement	3.6%
Market Average Movement	6.1%
10% most volatile stocks in GB Market	11.7%
10% least volatile stocks in GB Market	3.1%

Stable Share Price: BBOX is not significantly more volatile than the rest of UK stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: BBOX's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
n/a	n/a	Colin Godfrey	https://tritaxbigbox.co.uk

Tritax Big Box REIT plc is the only listed vehicle dedicated to investing in very large logistics warehouse assets (Big Boxes) in the UK and is committed to delivering attractive and sustainable returns for shareholders. Investing in and actively managing existing built investments, land suitable for Big Box development and developments predominantly delivered through pre-let forward funded basis, the Company focuses on large, well-located, modern Big Box logistics assets, let to institutional-grade tenants on long-term leases (typically at least 12 years in length) with upward-only rent reviews and geographic and tenant diversification throughout the UK. The Company seeks to exploit the significant opportunity in this sub-sector of the UK logistics market owing to strong tenant demand and limited supply of Big Boxes.

Tritax Big Box REIT Fundamentals Summary

How do Tritax Big Box REIT's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
BBOX fundamental statistics
Market Cap	UK£3.81b
Earnings (TTM)	UK£972.60m
Revenue (TTM)	UK£189.90m

3.9x

P/E Ratio

20.1x

P/S Ratio

Is BBOX overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
BBOX income statement (TTM)
Revenue	UK£189.90m
Cost of Revenue	UK£5.20m
Gross Profit	UK£184.70m
Other Expenses	-UK£787.90m
Earnings	UK£972.60m

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

Aug 04, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.52
Gross Margin	97.26%
Net Profit Margin	512.16%
Debt/Equity Ratio	33.0%

How did BBOX perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

3.3%

Current Dividend Yield

58%

Payout Ratio

Valuation

Is Tritax Big Box REIT undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PE vs Industry
PE vs Market
PEG Ratio
PB vs Industry

30.1%

Undervalued compared to fair value

Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: BBOX (£2.04) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£2.92)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BBOX is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: BBOX is good value based on its PE Ratio (3.9x) compared to the UK REITs industry average (9.5x).

PE vs Market: BBOX is good value based on its PE Ratio (3.9x) compared to the UK market (15.3x).

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: BBOX's earnings are forecast to decline next year, so we can't calculate its PEG ratio.

Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: BBOX's PB Ratio (0.9x) is in line with the GB REITs industry average.

Future Growth

How is Tritax Big Box REIT forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 8 analysts?

Future Growth Score

1/6

Future Growth Score 1/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-17.9%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: BBOX's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-17.9% per year).

Earnings vs Market: BBOX's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-17.9% per year).

High Growth Earnings: BBOX's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: BBOX's revenue (9.3% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the UK market (4.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: BBOX's revenue (9.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: BBOX's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (7.4%).

Past Performance

How has Tritax Big Box REIT performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

38.0%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: BBOX has a large one-off gain of £835.8M impacting its December 31 2021 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: BBOX's current net profit margins are higher than last year .

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: BBOX's earnings have grown significantly by 38% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: BBOX's earnings growth over the past year (116.4%) exceeds its 5-year average (38% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: BBOX earnings growth over the past year (116.4%) underperformed the REITs industry 129.6%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: BBOX's Return on Equity (23.9%) is considered high.

Financial Health

How is Tritax Big Box REIT's financial position?

Financial Health Score

3/6

Financial Health Score 3/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: BBOX's short term assets (£108.2M) do not cover its short term liabilities (£128.8M).

Long Term Liabilities: BBOX's short term assets (£108.2M) do not cover its long term liabilities (£1.4B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: BBOX's net debt to equity ratio (31.3%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: BBOX's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 37.7% to 33% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: BBOX's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (14.6%).

Interest Coverage: BBOX's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (4.5x coverage).

Balance Sheet

Dividend

What is Tritax Big Box REIT current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

3/6

Dividend Score 3/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

3.28%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: BBOX's dividend (3.28%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the UK market (1.78%).

High Dividend: BBOX's dividend (3.28%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the UK market (4.85%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: BBOX has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years and during this time payments have been volatile.

Growing Dividend: BBOX's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 8 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (58.3%), BBOX's dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonable cash payout ratio (63.9%), BBOX's dividend payments are covered by cash flows.

Next Steps

Explore strong dividend paying companies in the Real Estate industry.

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.9yrs

Average board tenure

CEO

Colin Godfrey

2.17yrs

Tenure

Mr. Colin Godfrey, BSc (Hons), MRICS serves as CEO of Tritax Management LLP since March 2020. He serves as a Partner at Tritax Group. In 2004, Mr. Godfrey became a partner of the Tritax Group and is respon...

Board Members

Experienced Board: BBOX's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 2.9 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: BBOX insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 8.7%.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/05/16 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/05/16 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31