Harworth Group plc

LSE:HWG Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£535.7m

Harworth Group Valuation

Is HWG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HWG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HWG (£1.66) is trading above our estimate of fair value (£0.27)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HWG is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HWG?

Key metric: As HWG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HWG. This is calculated by dividing HWG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HWG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio10.7x
EarningsUK£49.89m
Market CapUK£535.67m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HWG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HWG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average24.1x
DAR Dar Global
16.3x37.1%US$810.1m
MTVW Mountview Estates
12.6xn/aUK£350.9m
SVS Savills
31.2x33.3%UK£1.4b
TPFG Property Franchise Group
36.1x54.9%UK£280.1m
HWG Harworth Group
10.7x26.6%UK£535.7m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HWG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.7x) compared to the peer average (24.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HWG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Real Estate Industry?

23 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HWG 10.7xIndustry Avg. 18.0xNo. of Companies33PE01224364860+
23 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HWG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.7x) compared to the European Real Estate industry average (17.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HWG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HWG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio10.7x
Fair PE Ratio23.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HWG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HWG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£1.66
UK£2.16
+30.3%
12.0%UK£2.52UK£1.95n/a3
Nov ’25UK£1.75
UK£2.16
+23.2%
12.0%UK£2.52UK£1.95n/a3
Oct ’25UK£1.94
UK£2.16
+11.5%
12.0%UK£2.52UK£1.95n/a3
Sep ’25UK£1.65
UK£2.01
+21.6%
4.4%UK£2.13UK£1.94n/a3
Aug ’25UK£1.65
UK£2.01
+22.0%
4.4%UK£2.13UK£1.94n/a3
Jul ’25UK£1.56
UK£1.86
+19.2%
10.8%UK£2.13UK£1.65n/a3
Jun ’25UK£1.38
UK£1.86
+34.8%
10.8%UK£2.13UK£1.65n/a3
May ’25UK£1.37
UK£1.86
+36.3%
10.8%UK£2.13UK£1.65n/a3
Apr ’25UK£1.39
UK£1.86
+34.3%
10.8%UK£2.13UK£1.65n/a3
Mar ’25UK£1.29
UK£1.84
+42.4%
11.4%UK£2.13UK£1.65n/a3
Feb ’25UK£1.31
UK£1.73
+32.3%
17.5%UK£2.13UK£1.40n/a3
Jan ’25UK£1.22
UK£1.73
+42.1%
17.5%UK£2.13UK£1.40n/a3
Dec ’24UK£1.13
UK£1.73
+52.8%
17.5%UK£2.13UK£1.40n/a3
Nov ’24UK£0.99
UK£1.70
+71.2%
15.8%UK£2.13UK£1.40UK£1.754
Oct ’24UK£1.06
UK£1.70
+60.7%
15.8%UK£2.13UK£1.40UK£1.944
Sep ’24UK£1.08
UK£1.70
+57.7%
15.8%UK£2.13UK£1.40UK£1.654
Aug ’24UK£1.13
UK£1.70
+50.0%
15.8%UK£2.13UK£1.40UK£1.654
Jul ’24UK£1.06
UK£1.70
+60.7%
15.8%UK£2.13UK£1.40UK£1.564
Jun ’24UK£1.23
UK£1.73
+41.4%
15.6%UK£2.13UK£1.40UK£1.384
May ’24UK£1.17
UK£1.60
+36.8%
10.2%UK£1.80UK£1.40UK£1.373
Apr ’24UK£1.09
UK£1.60
+47.5%
10.2%UK£1.80UK£1.40UK£1.393
Mar ’24UK£1.19
UK£1.53
+28.9%
6.1%UK£1.60UK£1.40UK£1.293
Feb ’24UK£1.18
UK£1.52
+28.5%
7.8%UK£1.60UK£1.35UK£1.313
Jan ’24UK£1.06
UK£1.88
+77.7%
16.8%UK£2.20UK£1.45UK£1.223
Dec ’23UK£1.05
UK£1.88
+79.4%
16.8%UK£2.20UK£1.45UK£1.133
Nov ’23UK£1.07
UK£1.99
+87.2%
8.6%UK£2.20UK£1.78UK£0.993

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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