UBM Development AG

LSE:0GD5 Stock Report

Market Cap: €136.0m

UBM Development Valuation

Is 0GD5 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 0GD5 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 0GD5 (€18.25) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€46)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 0GD5 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 0GD5?

Key metric: As 0GD5 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 0GD5. This is calculated by dividing 0GD5's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 0GD5's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio1.5x
Sales€90.37m
Market Cap€135.99m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 0GD5's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 0GD5 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average2.6x
FPO First Property Group
2.9xn/aUK£22.9m
WINK M Winkworth
2.5x7.4%UK£25.2m
LSL LSL Property Services
1.8x12.1%UK£290.1m
PCA Palace Capital
3.2xn/aUK£62.1m
0GD5 UBM Development
1.5x26.3%€136.0m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 0GD5 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.5x) compared to the peer average (2.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 0GD5's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Real Estate Industry?

10 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
IWG International Workplace Group
0.6x6.1%US$2.22b
ETLN Etalon Group
0.3x10.5%US$210.89m
WJG Watkin Jones
0.1x1.6%US$77.04m
RAV Raven Property Group
0.1x-0.2%US$23.74m
0GD5 1.5xIndustry Avg. 4.1xNo. of Companies10PS02.44.87.29.612+
10 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 0GD5 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.5x) compared to the UK Real Estate industry average (4.1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 0GD5's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

0GD5 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio1.5x
Fair PS Ration/a

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate 0GD5's Price-To-Sales Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 0GD5 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€18.25
€29.13
+59.6%
6.0%€31.50€27.00n/a4
Nov ’25n/a
€29.13
0%
6.0%€31.50€27.00n/a4
Oct ’25n/a
€29.17
0%
5.7%€31.50€28.00n/a3
Sep ’25n/a
€28.40
0%
2.0%€29.20€28.00n/a3
Aug ’25n/a
€27.73
0%
4.8%€29.20€26.00n/a3
Jul ’25n/a
€28.40
0%
6.1%€30.00€26.00n/a3
Jun ’25n/a
€28.40
0%
6.1%€30.00€26.00n/a3
May ’25€18.65
€28.53
+53.0%
6.3%€30.00€26.00n/a3
Apr ’25€18.80
€28.40
+51.1%
6.1%€30.00€26.00n/a3
Mar ’25€21.10
€29.73
+40.9%
1.3%€30.00€29.20n/a3
Feb ’25€22.40
€29.73
+32.7%
1.3%€30.00€29.20n/a3
Jan ’25€20.73
€29.73
+43.4%
1.3%€30.00€29.20n/a3
Dec ’24€20.50
€30.23
+47.5%
3.2%€31.50€29.20n/a3
Nov ’24€20.20
€31.53
+56.1%
1.2%€32.00€31.10n/a3
Oct ’24€21.00
€32.03
+52.5%
2.8%€33.50€31.10n/a4
Sep ’24€21.50
€33.65
+56.5%
7.9%€38.00€31.10n/a4
Aug ’24€24.50
€37.63
+53.6%
6.6%€40.00€33.50n/a4
Jul ’24€26.20
€37.63
+43.6%
6.6%€40.00€33.50n/a4
Jun ’24€26.10
€37.90
+45.2%
6.0%€40.00€33.50n/a5
May ’24€29.67
€37.78
+27.3%
5.9%€40.00€33.50€18.655
Apr ’24€27.62
€37.78
+36.8%
5.9%€40.00€33.50€18.805
Mar ’24€30.50
€37.78
+23.9%
5.9%€40.00€33.50€21.105
Feb ’24€29.60
€39.38
+33.0%
6.0%€44.00€37.50€22.405
Jan ’24€23.06
€39.78
+72.5%
5.7%€44.00€37.50€20.735
Dec ’23€29.20
€39.78
+36.2%
5.7%€44.00€37.50€20.505
Nov ’23€28.10
€40.18
+43.0%
5.6%€44.00€37.50€20.205

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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