Results: Indivior PLC Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

A week ago, Indivior PLC (LON:INDV) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. Indivior delivered a significant beat to revenue and earnings per share (EPS) expectations, hitting US$266m-11% above indicated-andUS$0.38-77% above forecasts- respectively Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Our free stock report includes 3 warning signs investors should be aware of before investing in Indivior. Read for free now.

Taking into account the latest results, the seven analysts covering Indivior provided consensus estimates of US$1.03b revenue in 2025, which would reflect a not inconsiderable 12% decline over the past 12 months. Indivior is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$1.07 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.02b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.00 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Indivior's earnings potential following these results.

See our latest analysis for Indivior

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of UK£10.82, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Indivior at UK£12.15 per share, while the most bearish prices it at UK£9.28. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Indivior is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 15% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 14% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.9% per year. It's pretty clear that Indivior's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Indivior following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Indivior's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Indivior analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for Indivior (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.