Novavax, Inc.

LSE:0A3S Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.4b

Novavax Valuation

Is 0A3S undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 0A3S when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 0A3S ($8.65) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($56.08)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 0A3S is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 0A3S?

Key metric: As 0A3S is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 0A3S. This is calculated by dividing 0A3S's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 0A3S's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio1.6x
SalesUS$885.19m
Market CapUS$1.42b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 0A3S's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 0A3S vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average6.8x
GNS Genus
1.5x3.7%UK£1.0b
OXB Oxford Biomedica
4.6x21.2%UK£448.7m
BVXP Bioventix
12.5xn/aUK£169.6m
AVCT Avacta Group
8.4x0.4%UK£190.3m
0A3S Novavax
1.6x-7.5%US$1.4b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 0A3S is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.6x) compared to the peer average (6.8x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 0A3S's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Biotechs Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.8.3x18.2%
0A3S Novavax
 1.6x-7.5%US$1.42b
GNS Genus
1.5x3.7%US$1.26b
TRX Tissue Regenix Group
1.6x15.1%US$51.79m
0A3S 1.6xIndustry Avg. 8.3xNo. of Companies5PS01224364860+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.8.3x35.7%
0A3S Novavax
 1.6x51.9%US$1.42b
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 0A3S is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.6x) compared to the European Biotechs industry average (8.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 0A3S's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

0A3S PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio1.6x
Fair PS Ratio1.8x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 0A3S is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 0A3S forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$8.65
US$16.00
+85.0%
39.5%US$25.00US$9.00n/a6
Dec ’25US$8.79
US$16.00
+82.1%
39.5%US$25.00US$9.00n/a6
Nov ’25US$9.50
US$17.83
+87.7%
34.5%US$26.00US$9.00n/a6
Oct ’25US$12.12
US$18.17
+49.9%
41.5%US$31.00US$9.00n/a6
Sep ’25US$11.46
US$18.17
+58.5%
41.5%US$31.00US$9.00n/a6
Aug ’25US$12.56
US$19.17
+52.6%
45.0%US$31.00US$8.00n/a6
Jul ’25US$12.78
US$22.80
+78.5%
42.6%US$38.00US$10.00n/a5
Jun ’25US$14.70
US$21.60
+46.9%
48.9%US$38.00US$10.00n/a5
May ’25US$4.51
US$15.40
+241.3%
81.2%US$38.00US$4.00n/a5
Apr ’25US$4.79
US$15.40
+221.8%
81.2%US$38.00US$4.00n/a5
Mar ’25US$5.26
US$15.40
+192.8%
81.2%US$38.00US$4.00n/a5
Feb ’25US$4.08
US$19.40
+375.4%
73.3%US$38.00US$4.00n/a5
Jan ’25US$4.85
US$19.60
+304.1%
71.5%US$38.00US$5.00US$7.885
Dec ’24US$5.55
US$19.60
+253.2%
71.5%US$38.00US$5.00US$8.795
Nov ’24US$6.93
US$20.60
+197.3%
65.0%US$38.00US$5.00US$9.505
Oct ’24US$7.30
US$20.60
+182.3%
65.0%US$38.00US$5.00US$12.125
Sep ’24US$8.28
US$20.60
+148.8%
65.0%US$38.00US$5.00US$11.465
Aug ’24US$8.74
US$22.00
+151.7%
60.7%US$41.00US$9.00US$12.565
Jul ’24US$7.53
US$22.83
+203.1%
54.0%US$41.00US$9.00US$12.786
Jun ’24US$7.76
US$22.83
+194.2%
54.0%US$41.00US$9.00US$14.706
May ’24US$7.67
US$39.33
+412.8%
95.6%US$110.00US$10.00US$4.516
Apr ’24US$6.82
US$46.83
+586.7%
75.7%US$110.00US$10.00US$4.796
Mar ’24US$6.77
US$46.83
+591.8%
75.7%US$110.00US$10.00US$5.266
Feb ’24US$10.75
US$55.33
+414.8%
62.3%US$110.00US$13.00US$4.086
Jan ’24US$9.70
US$61.50
+534.0%
55.2%US$110.00US$13.00US$4.856

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/05 05:48
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/03 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Novavax, Inc. is covered by 25 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Alec StranahanBofA Global Research
Mayank MamtaniB. Riley Securities, Inc.
George ZavoicoB. Riley Securities, Inc.