Stock Analysis

Auto Trader Group's (LON:AUTO) investors will be pleased with their favorable 56% return over the last five years

LSE:AUTO
Source: Shutterstock

Stock pickers are generally looking for stocks that will outperform the broader market. And while active stock picking involves risks (and requires diversification) it can also provide excess returns. For example, the Auto Trader Group plc (LON:AUTO) share price is up 48% in the last 5 years, clearly besting the market decline of around 8.1% (ignoring dividends). On the other hand, the more recent gains haven't been so impressive, with shareholders gaining just 6.6% , including dividends .

So let's investigate and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.

Check out our latest analysis for Auto Trader Group

SWOT Analysis for Auto Trader Group

Strength
  • Debt is not viewed as a risk.
  • Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
Weakness
  • Earnings declined over the past year.
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Interactive Media and Services market.
  • Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Opportunity
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the British market.
Threat
  • Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During five years of share price growth, Auto Trader Group achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 7.6% per year. This EPS growth is reasonably close to the 8% average annual increase in the share price. That suggests that the market sentiment around the company hasn't changed much over that time. Indeed, it would appear the share price is reacting to the EPS.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-per-share-growth
LSE:AUTO Earnings Per Share Growth June 3rd 2023

It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Auto Trader Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Auto Trader Group's TSR for the last 5 years was 56%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Auto Trader Group shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 6.6% over the last year. That's including the dividend. Having said that, the five-year TSR of 9% a year, is even better. Before deciding if you like the current share price, check how Auto Trader Group scores on these 3 valuation metrics.

But note: Auto Trader Group may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on British exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.