Celtic (AIM:CCP) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of CCP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

CCP (£1.23) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (£0.25)

CCP fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	2/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	1/6
Financial Health	4/6
Dividends	0/6

CCP Stock Overview

Celtic plc, through its subsidiary, Celtic F.C.

Rewards

Price-To-Earnings ratio (6.9x) is below the UK market (14.3x)

Became profitable this year

Risk Analysis

Earnings have declined by 32.4% per year over past 5 years

Large one-off items impacting financial results

Celtic Competitors

LBG Media

AIM:LBG

UK£243.6m

One Media iP Group

AIM:OMIP

UK£15.2m

Aeorema Communications

AIM:AEO

UK£5.4m

DCD Media

AIM:DCD

UK£2.5m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Celtic
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	UK£1.23
52 Week High	UK£1.45
52 Week Low	UK£0.90
Beta	0.35
1 Month Change	-6.13%
3 Month Change	18.93%
1 Year Change	11.36%
3 Year Change	-24.62%
5 Year Change	25.00%
Change since IPO	-51.00%

Recent News & Updates

Apr 07

Is Celtic (LON:CCP) Using Debt In A Risky Way?

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of...

Shareholder Returns

	CCP	GB Entertainment	GB Market
7D	-2.0%	0.09%	2.3%
1Y	11.4%	-39.4%	-8.6%

Return vs Industry: CCP exceeded the UK Entertainment industry which returned -39.4% over the past year.

Return vs Market: CCP exceeded the UK Market which returned -8.6% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is CCP's price volatile compared to industry and market?
CCP volatility
CCP Average Weekly Movement	4.6%
Entertainment Industry Average Movement	7.0%
Market Average Movement	5.5%
10% most volatile stocks in GB Market	10.8%
10% least volatile stocks in GB Market	2.8%

Stable Share Price: CCP is not significantly more volatile than the rest of UK stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: CCP's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1887	667	Michael Gordon Nicholson	https://www.celticfc.net

Celtic plc, through its subsidiary, Celtic F.C. Limited, operates a professional football club in the United Kingdom. The company operates through three segments: Football and Stadium Operations, Merchandising, and Multimedia and Other Commercial Activities.

Celtic Fundamentals Summary

How do Celtic's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
CCP fundamental statistics
Market Cap	UK£115.75m
Earnings (TTM)	UK£16.88m
Revenue (TTM)	UK£72.95m

6.9x

P/E Ratio

1.6x

P/S Ratio

Is CCP overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
CCP income statement (TTM)
Revenue	UK£72.95m
Cost of Revenue	UK£79.20m
Gross Profit	-UK£6.25m
Other Expenses	-UK£23.13m
Earnings	UK£16.88m

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.18
Gross Margin	-8.56%
Net Profit Margin	23.14%
Debt/Equity Ratio	6.9%

How did CCP perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is CCP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CCP?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for CCP. This is calculated by dividing CCP's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is CCP's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	UK£115.75m

CCP key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	-27.3x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CCP's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

CCP PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for CCP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	23.4x
LBG LBG Media	46.6x	26.7%	UK£243.6m
OMIP One Media iP Group	28.1x	23.8%	UK£15.2m
AEO Aeorema Communications	14x	n/a	UK£5.4m
DCD DCD Media	4.9x	n/a	UK£2.5m
CCP Celtic	6.9x	n/a	UK£115.8m

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CCP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.9x) compared to the peer average (23.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CCP's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Entertainment Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CCP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.9x) compared to the UK Entertainment industry average (25.7x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CCP's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CCP PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	6.9x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate CCP's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CCP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CCP (£1.23) is trading above our estimate of fair value (£0.25)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CCP is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate CCP's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.

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Future Growth

How is Celtic forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 1 analyst?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

4.1%

Forecasted annual revenue growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: Insufficient data to determine if CCP's forecast earnings growth is above the savings rate (0.9%).

Earnings vs Market: Insufficient data to determine if CCP's earnings are forecast to grow faster than the UK market

High Growth Earnings: Insufficient data to determine if CCP's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: CCP's revenue (4.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the UK market (4.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: CCP's revenue (4.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if CCP's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

Discover growth companies

Past Performance

How has Celtic performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

1/6

Past Performance Score 1/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-32.4%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: CCP has a large one-off gain of £39.9M impacting its December 31 2021 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: CCP became profitable in the past.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: CCP's earnings have declined by 32.4% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: CCP has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: CCP has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Entertainment industry (8.2%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: CCP's Return on Equity (18.1%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Celtic's financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: CCP's short term assets (£62.9M) exceed its short term liabilities (£52.5M).

Long Term Liabilities: CCP's short term assets (£62.9M) exceed its long term liabilities (£16.3M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: CCP has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: CCP's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 16.1% to 6.9% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: CCP's operating cash flow is negative, therefore debt is not well covered.

Interest Coverage: Insufficient data to determine if CCP's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Celtic current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate CCP's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate CCP's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if CCP's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if CCP's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as CCP has not reported any payouts.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

0.8yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Michael Gordon Nicholson (45 yo)

0.75

Tenure

Mr. Michael Gordon Kenneth Nicholson serves as Chief Executive Officer of Celtic plc since December 2021 and had been its Acting Chief Executive Officer since September 10, 2021 until December 2021. He has...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: CCP's management team is not considered experienced ( 0.8 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.

Board Members

Experienced Board: CCP's board of directors are seasoned and experienced ( 11 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/26 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/24 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/06/30