Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Johnson Matthey Plc (LON:JMAT) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
See our latest analysis for Johnson Matthey
What Is Johnson Matthey's Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Johnson Matthey had UK£1.20b of debt in March 2022, down from UK£1.31b, one year before. However, it also had UK£392.0m in cash, and so its net debt is UK£811.0m.
How Healthy Is Johnson Matthey's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Johnson Matthey had liabilities of UK£3.15b falling due within a year, and liabilities of UK£1.07b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had UK£392.0m in cash and UK£1.74b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling UK£2.09b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Johnson Matthey has a market capitalization of UK£3.65b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Johnson Matthey's net debt is only 1.2 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 10.5 times over. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. Fortunately, Johnson Matthey grew its EBIT by 7.7% in the last year, making that debt load look even more manageable. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Johnson Matthey's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Johnson Matthey recorded free cash flow of 45% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
Our View
When it comes to the balance sheet, the standout positive for Johnson Matthey was the fact that it seems able to cover its interest expense with its EBIT confidently. But the other factors we noted above weren't so encouraging. For example, its level of total liabilities makes us a little nervous about its debt. When we consider all the factors mentioned above, we do feel a bit cautious about Johnson Matthey's use of debt. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Johnson Matthey (1 is a bit unpleasant) you should be aware of.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About LSE:JMAT
Johnson Matthey
Engages in the clean air, catalyst and hydrogen technology, and platinum group metals (PGM) service businesses in the United Kingdom, Germany, rest of Europe, the United States, rest of North America, China, rest of Asia, and internationally.
Excellent balance sheet and fair value.