Ibstock plc Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Investors in Ibstock plc (LON:IBST) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.4% to close at UK£1.69 following the release of its full-year results. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of UK£366m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 23% to hit UK£0.038 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Ibstock

After the latest results, the ten analysts covering Ibstock are now predicting revenues of UK£400.8m in 2025. If met, this would reflect a meaningful 9.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 110% to UK£0.08. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of UK£400.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.079 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of UK£2.07, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Ibstock at UK£2.40 per share, while the most bearish prices it at UK£1.82. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Ibstock is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting Ibstock's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 9.4% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 1.9% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 6.7% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Ibstock is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at UK£2.07, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Ibstock. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Ibstock going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Ibstock has 2 warning signs (and 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.