Centamin plc

LSE:CEY Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£1.6b

Centamin Valuation

Is CEY undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CEY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CEY (£1.41) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£2.21)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CEY is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CEY?

Key metric: As CEY is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CEY. This is calculated by dividing CEY's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CEY's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio24.3x
EarningsUS$84.67m
Market CapUS$2.06b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CEY's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CEY vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16.9x
HOC Hochschild Mining
46.5x51.1%UK£1.1b
PAF Pan African Resources
9.6x28.8%UK£601.8m
SRB Serabi Gold
7.1x45.0%UK£61.3m
ALTN AltynGold
4.6xn/aUK£60.4m
CEY Centamin
24.3x23.9%UK£1.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CEY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.3x) compared to the peer average (16.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CEY's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Metals and Mining Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ENPL En+ Group International
2.2x8.0%US$4.67b
NLMK Novolipetsk Steel
0.8xn/aUS$4.08b
EVR EVRAZ
0.4xn/aUS$1.42b
MTL Metals Exploration
0.9x-60.3%US$120.92m
CEY 24.3xIndustry Avg. 9.9xNo. of Companies7PE01020304050+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CEY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.3x) compared to the UK Metals and Mining industry average (9.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CEY's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CEY PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio24.3x
Fair PE Ratio20.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CEY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CEY forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£1.41
UK£1.68
+19.1%
9.7%UK£2.05UK£1.54n/a7
Nov ’25UK£1.57
UK£1.65
+4.9%
9.6%UK£2.01UK£1.51n/a7
Oct ’25UK£1.51
UK£1.59
+5.1%
8.4%UK£1.82UK£1.44n/a8
Sep ’25UK£1.25
UK£1.57
+25.8%
11.7%UK£1.85UK£1.17n/a10
Aug ’25UK£1.23
UK£1.60
+29.8%
12.2%UK£1.90UK£1.16n/a10
Jul ’25UK£1.22
UK£1.54
+26.7%
10.0%UK£1.80UK£1.17n/a10
Jun ’25UK£1.19
UK£1.47
+22.9%
13.7%UK£1.69UK£1.05n/a11
May ’25UK£1.21
UK£1.44
+19.4%
12.6%UK£1.69UK£1.07n/a11
Apr ’25UK£1.13
UK£1.38
+21.8%
11.4%UK£1.60UK£1.10n/a11
Mar ’25UK£0.93
UK£1.35
+44.9%
11.4%UK£1.60UK£1.09n/a11
Feb ’25UK£0.96
UK£1.35
+40.6%
11.4%UK£1.59UK£1.09n/a11
Jan ’25UK£1.00
UK£1.32
+32.5%
13.7%UK£1.57UK£0.95n/a10
Dec ’24UK£1.01
UK£1.28
+27.4%
12.9%UK£1.57UK£0.95n/a10
Nov ’24UK£0.83
UK£1.32
+58.4%
11.4%UK£1.50UK£0.98UK£1.5710
Oct ’24UK£0.84
UK£1.36
+63.0%
12.5%UK£1.60UK£1.05UK£1.5110
Sep ’24UK£0.88
UK£1.34
+52.6%
12.5%UK£1.52UK£1.00UK£1.2510
Aug ’24UK£0.95
UK£1.34
+40.1%
12.6%UK£1.52UK£1.00UK£1.2310
Jul ’24UK£0.91
UK£1.29
+41.1%
14.2%UK£1.51UK£0.89UK£1.2210
Jun ’24UK£1.02
UK£1.28
+26.0%
12.0%UK£1.44UK£0.91UK£1.1910
May ’24UK£1.03
UK£1.28
+24.4%
11.7%UK£1.45UK£0.92UK£1.2110
Apr ’24UK£1.04
UK£1.27
+21.5%
11.7%UK£1.47UK£0.93UK£1.1310
Mar ’24UK£1.05
UK£1.31
+25.5%
9.5%UK£1.54UK£1.11UK£0.939
Feb ’24UK£1.09
UK£1.29
+18.1%
8.9%UK£1.50UK£1.11UK£0.969
Jan ’24UK£1.13
UK£1.32
+17.3%
11.2%UK£1.64UK£1.07UK£1.0010
Dec ’23UK£1.09
UK£1.24
+14.6%
16.4%UK£1.64UK£0.94UK£1.0110
Nov ’23UK£0.91
UK£1.21
+32.2%
14.9%UK£1.60UK£0.97UK£0.8310

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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