Hill & Smith PLC

BATS-CHIXE:HILSl Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£1.7b

Hill & Smith Valuation

Is HILSl undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HILSl when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HILSl (£21.05) is trading above our estimate of fair value (£17.75)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HILSl is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HILSl?

Key metric: As HILSl is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HILSl. This is calculated by dividing HILSl's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HILSl's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio22x
EarningsUK£76.80m
Market CapUK£1.69b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HILSl's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HILSl vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average5.2x
NLMK Novolipetsk Steel
0.8xn/aUS$4.1b
EVR EVRAZ
0.4xn/aUK£1.2b
ECOR Ecora Resources
10.4x14.9%UK£163.0m
CGS Castings
9.2x-0.1%UK£111.3m
HILSl Hill & Smith
22x10.9%UK£1.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HILSl is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22x) compared to the peer average (9.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HILSl's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Metals and Mining Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
NLMK Novolipetsk Steel
0.8xn/aUS$4.08b
EVR EVRAZ
0.4xn/aUS$1.42b
MTL Metals Exploration
0.9x-60.3%US$128.15m
TGR Tirupati Graphite
1.2xn/aUS$10.50m
No more companies available in this PE range
No. of Companies6PE0816243240+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HILSl is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22x) compared to the UK Metals and Mining industry average (9.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HILSl's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HILSl PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio22x
Fair PE Ratio14.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HILSl is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HILSl forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£21.05
UK£24.22
+15.1%
6.4%UK£26.25UK£22.00n/a8
Nov ’25UK£20.65
UK£24.12
+16.8%
6.2%UK£26.25UK£22.00n/a8
Oct ’25UK£20.30
UK£23.98
+18.1%
6.8%UK£26.25UK£22.00n/a8
Sep ’25UK£21.30
UK£23.81
+11.8%
5.8%UK£26.00UK£22.00n/a7
Aug ’25UK£22.40
UK£23.41
+4.5%
4.3%UK£25.00UK£22.00n/a7
Jul ’25UK£19.42
UK£23.31
+20.1%
5.0%UK£25.00UK£21.40n/a7
Jun ’25UK£20.30
UK£23.29
+14.7%
5.0%UK£25.00UK£21.40n/a7
May ’25UK£18.82
UK£21.81
+15.9%
5.7%UK£23.20UK£19.40n/a7
Apr ’25UK£19.54
UK£21.81
+11.6%
5.7%UK£23.20UK£19.40n/a7
Mar ’25UK£18.34
UK£21.24
+15.8%
5.0%UK£22.80UK£19.40n/a7
Feb ’25UK£18.88
UK£21.24
+12.5%
5.0%UK£22.80UK£19.40n/a7
Jan ’25UK£19.22
UK£20.49
+6.6%
3.2%UK£21.00UK£19.10n/a6
Dec ’24UK£18.34
UK£20.49
+11.7%
3.2%UK£21.00UK£19.10n/a6
Nov ’24UK£16.82
UK£19.83
+17.9%
3.4%UK£20.80UK£19.00UK£20.656
Oct ’24UK£17.20
UK£19.26
+12.0%
5.2%UK£20.80UK£17.70UK£20.306
Sep ’24UK£17.88
UK£19.26
+7.7%
5.2%UK£20.80UK£17.70UK£21.306
Aug ’24UK£15.84
UK£17.03
+7.5%
5.7%UK£18.00UK£15.40UK£22.406
Jul ’24UK£15.02
UK£16.51
+9.9%
5.3%UK£18.00UK£15.40UK£19.425
Jun ’24UK£14.80
UK£16.31
+10.2%
3.5%UK£17.00UK£15.40UK£20.305
May ’24UK£13.76
UK£15.68
+14.0%
2.9%UK£16.10UK£14.90UK£18.825
Apr ’24UK£13.48
UK£15.48
+14.8%
2.9%UK£16.00UK£14.90UK£19.545
Mar ’24UK£13.94
UK£14.90
+6.9%
6.2%UK£16.00UK£13.00UK£18.346
Feb ’24UK£12.62
UK£14.67
+16.2%
6.4%UK£16.00UK£13.00UK£18.886
Jan ’24UK£11.78
UK£14.48
+22.9%
6.6%UK£16.00UK£13.00UK£19.226
Dec ’23UK£11.87
UK£14.48
+22.0%
6.6%UK£16.00UK£13.00UK£18.346
Nov ’23UK£10.00
UK£14.90
+49.0%
4.4%UK£16.00UK£14.00UK£16.825

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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