Stock Analysis

Direct Line Insurance Group (LON:DLG) shareholders have endured a 37% loss from investing in the stock five years ago

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LSE:DLG

The main aim of stock picking is to find the market-beating stocks. But even the best stock picker will only win with some selections. So we wouldn't blame long term Direct Line Insurance Group plc (LON:DLG) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 54% over a half decade. Furthermore, it's down 12% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders.

With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.

View our latest analysis for Direct Line Insurance Group

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Over five years Direct Line Insurance Group's earnings per share dropped significantly, falling to a loss, with the share price also lower. Since the company has fallen to a loss making position, it's hard to compare the change in EPS with the share price change. But we would generally expect a lower price, given the situation.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

LSE:DLG Earnings Per Share Growth February 24th 2024

Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.

What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We've already covered Direct Line Insurance Group's share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. Dividends have been really beneficial for Direct Line Insurance Group shareholders, and that cash payout explains why its total shareholder loss of 37%, over the last 5 years, isn't as bad as the share price return.

A Different Perspective

Investors in Direct Line Insurance Group had a tough year, with a total loss of 5.0%, against a market gain of about 0.3%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, longer term shareholders are suffering worse, given the loss of 6% doled out over the last five years. We'd need to see some sustained improvements in the key metrics before we could muster much enthusiasm. If you would like to research Direct Line Insurance Group in more detail then you might want to take a look at whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in the company.

Of course Direct Line Insurance Group may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on British exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Direct Line Insurance Group is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.