Hilton Food Group Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of HFGl when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

HFGl (£9.08) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (£5)

Is HFGl undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HFGl when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HFGl (£9.08) is trading above our estimate of fair value (£5)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HFGl is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HFGl?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for HFGl. This is calculated by dividing HFGl's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is HFGl's n/a Ratio?
n/a	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	UK£817.19m

HFGl key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	8x
PEG Ratio	1.7x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HFGl's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HFGl vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	11.8x
BAKK Bakkavor Group	14.1x	11.2%	UK£902.2m
GNC Greencore Group	15.3x	6.7%	UK£800.8m
PFD Premier Foods	14x	4.5%	UK£1.6b
MHPC MHP	3.8x	n/a	US$427.1m
HFGl Hilton Food Group	17.6x	10.5%	UK£817.2m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HFGl is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.6x) compared to the peer average (11.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HFGl's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Food Industry?

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	8.3%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

Fetching data

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	8.3%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HFGl is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.6x) compared to the European Food industry average (14.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HFGl's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HFGl PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	17.6x
Fair PE Ratio	15.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HFGl is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HFGl forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	UK£9.08	UK£10.68 +17.7%	7.0%	UK£12.00	UK£9.55	n/a	6
Sep ’25	UK£9.81	UK£10.53 +7.4%	7.5%	UK£12.00	UK£9.55	n/a	6
Aug ’25	UK£9.22	UK£10.53 +14.2%	7.5%	UK£12.00	UK£9.55	n/a	6
Jul ’25	UK£9.05	UK£10.53 +16.4%	7.5%	UK£12.00	UK£9.55	n/a	6
Jun ’25	UK£8.99	UK£10.53 +17.2%	7.5%	UK£12.00	UK£9.55	n/a	6
May ’25	UK£9.17	UK£10.23 +11.5%	12.8%	UK£12.00	UK£7.70	n/a	6
Apr ’25	UK£8.41	UK£9.33 +10.9%	16.5%	UK£11.50	UK£7.00	n/a	6
Mar ’25	UK£8.13	UK£9.16 +12.6%	16.5%	UK£11.50	UK£7.00	n/a	6
Feb ’25	UK£7.71	UK£9.16 +18.8%	16.5%	UK£11.50	UK£7.00	n/a	6
Jan ’25	UK£8.04	UK£9.06 +12.7%	15.3%	UK£11.00	UK£7.00	n/a	6
Dec ’24	UK£7.23	UK£8.91 +23.2%	14.9%	UK£11.00	UK£7.00	n/a	7
Nov ’24	UK£6.63	UK£8.91 +34.3%	14.9%	UK£11.00	UK£7.00	n/a	7
Oct ’24	UK£7.17	UK£8.84 +23.2%	13.9%	UK£10.50	UK£7.00	UK£9.00	7
Sep ’24	UK£6.80	UK£8.77 +28.9%	15.2%	UK£10.50	UK£7.00	UK£9.81	6
Aug ’24	UK£6.48	UK£9.05 +39.7%	14.2%	UK£10.50	UK£7.00	UK£9.22	5
Jul ’24	UK£6.26	UK£8.67 +38.5%	16.8%	UK£10.50	UK£6.76	UK£9.05	6
Jun ’24	UK£6.87	UK£8.25 +20.1%	20.5%	UK£10.50	UK£5.75	UK£8.99	7
May ’24	UK£6.75	UK£7.78 +15.3%	17.4%	UK£10.30	UK£5.75	UK£9.17	7
Apr ’24	UK£6.89	UK£7.47 +8.4%	19.1%	UK£10.30	UK£5.75	UK£8.41	7
Mar ’24	UK£7.16	UK£7.52 +5.0%	17.9%	UK£10.30	UK£5.75	UK£8.13	8
Feb ’24	UK£6.67	UK£7.52 +12.8%	17.9%	UK£10.30	UK£5.75	UK£7.71	8
Jan ’24	UK£5.61	UK£7.52 +34.1%	17.9%	UK£10.30	UK£5.75	UK£8.04	8
Dec ’23	UK£5.38	UK£7.52 +39.8%	17.9%	UK£10.30	UK£5.75	UK£7.23	8
Nov ’23	UK£6.22	UK£10.34 +66.2%	23.3%	UK£14.20	UK£7.00	UK£6.63	8
Oct ’23	UK£5.34	UK£11.80 +121.0%	19.0%	UK£15.00	UK£7.40	UK£7.17	8

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.