A.G. BARR p.l.c.

BATS-CHIXE:BAGL Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£638.1m

A.G. BARR Valuation

Is BAGL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BAGL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BAGL (£5.71) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£10.04)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BAGL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BAGL?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

BAGL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA9.9x
PEG Ratio1.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BAGL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BAGL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average35.4x
NICL Nichols
19x10.2%UK£348.5m
FEVR Fevertree Drinks
87.7x34.6%UK£1.4b
BVIC Britvic
17.6x9.0%UK£2.2b
CCH Coca-Cola HBC
17.5x10.2%UK£9.5b
BAGL A.G. BARR
16.6x10.8%UK£638.1m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BAGL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.6x) compared to the peer average (35.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BAGL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Beverage Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a6.5%
 n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a6.5%
 n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BAGL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.6x) compared to the European Beverage industry average (17.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BAGL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BAGL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.6x
Fair PE Ratio14.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BAGL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BAGL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£5.71
UK£6.48
+13.5%
9.6%UK£7.00UK£5.22n/a6
Apr ’25UK£5.83
UK£6.30
+8.1%
8.1%UK£6.85UK£5.22n/a7
Mar ’25UK£5.26
UK£6.18
+17.5%
8.6%UK£6.85UK£5.17n/a7
Feb ’25UK£5.74
UK£6.05
+5.4%
8.0%UK£6.85UK£5.17n/a8
Jan ’25UK£5.13
UK£5.97
+16.4%
6.5%UK£6.65UK£5.17n/a8
Dec ’24UK£4.83
UK£5.97
+23.6%
6.5%UK£6.65UK£5.17n/a8
Nov ’24UK£4.93
UK£5.95
+20.7%
7.1%UK£6.65UK£5.17n/a7
Oct ’24UK£4.91
UK£5.95
+21.4%
7.1%UK£6.65UK£5.17n/a7
Sep ’24UK£4.85
UK£5.95
+22.7%
7.2%UK£6.65UK£5.17n/a7
Aug ’24UK£4.81
UK£5.91
+23.1%
7.5%UK£6.65UK£5.17n/a7
Jul ’24UK£4.69
UK£5.91
+26.2%
7.5%UK£6.65UK£5.17n/a7
Jun ’24UK£5.07
UK£5.99
+18.1%
7.3%UK£6.65UK£5.17n/a6
May ’24UK£5.07
UK£6.15
+21.3%
4.4%UK£6.65UK£5.90UK£5.635
Apr ’24UK£5.07
UK£6.15
+21.4%
4.4%UK£6.65UK£5.90UK£5.835
Mar ’24UK£5.50
UK£6.00
+9.1%
6.8%UK£6.65UK£5.17UK£5.267
Feb ’24UK£5.48
UK£5.99
+9.2%
7.2%UK£6.65UK£5.17UK£5.746
Jan ’24UK£5.34
UK£5.85
+9.6%
8.7%UK£6.65UK£5.17UK£5.136
Dec ’23UK£5.02
UK£5.77
+14.9%
9.0%UK£6.65UK£5.17UK£4.836
Nov ’23UK£4.51
UK£5.77
+28.1%
9.0%UK£6.65UK£5.17UK£4.936
Oct ’23UK£4.56
UK£5.97
+31.1%
9.7%UK£6.65UK£5.17UK£4.916
Sep ’23UK£4.94
UK£6.23
+26.2%
8.9%UK£6.90UK£5.17UK£4.856
Aug ’23UK£5.39
UK£6.25
+15.9%
9.0%UK£6.90UK£5.17UK£4.816
Jul ’23UK£5.20
UK£6.25
+20.1%
9.0%UK£6.90UK£5.17UK£4.696
Jun ’23UK£5.33
UK£6.25
+17.2%
9.0%UK£6.90UK£5.17UK£5.076
May ’23UK£5.85
UK£6.25
+6.8%
9.0%UK£6.90UK£5.17UK£5.076

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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