Results: M.P. Evans Group PLC Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

Investors in M.P. Evans Group PLC (LON:MPE) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.2% to close at UK£10.10 following the release of its full-year results. Revenues were US$353m, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of US$1.65 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 11%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the three analysts covering M.P. Evans Group provided consensus estimates of US$343.4m revenue in 2025, which would reflect a measurable 2.7% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to sink 17% to US$1.41 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$357.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.42 in 2025. The consensus seems maybe a little more pessimistic, trimming their revenue forecasts after the latest results even though there was no change to its EPS estimates.

See our latest analysis for M.P. Evans Group

The analysts have also increased their price target 8.8% to UK£13.61, clearly signalling that lower revenue forecasts next year are not expected to have a material impact on M.P. Evans Group's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic M.P. Evans Group analyst has a price target of UK£14.96 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at UK£12.56. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 2.7% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 17% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.0% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - M.P. Evans Group is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Even so, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for M.P. Evans Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for M.P. Evans Group (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.