Hotel Chocolat Group Valuation

Is HOTC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HOTC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HOTC (£3.74) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£4.41)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HOTC is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HOTC?

Key metric: As HOTC is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for HOTC. This is calculated by dividing HOTC's market cap by their current revenue.
What is HOTC's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	2.6x
Sales	UK£204.50m
Market Cap	UK£526.59m

HOTC key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	2.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	52.6x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does HOTC's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for HOTC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	0.3x
MHPC MHP	0.2x	n/a	US$530.9m
HFG Hilton Food Group	0.2x	3.6%	UK£800.1m
GNC Greencore Group	0.5x	3.0%	UK£869.9m
BAKK Bakkavor Group	0.4x	1.9%	UK£832.8m
HOTC Hotel Chocolat Group	2.6x	5.4%	UK£526.6m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: HOTC is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.6x) compared to the peer average (0.2x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does HOTC's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Food Industry?

5 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
MHPC MHP	0.2x	n/a	US$530.91m
WYN Wynnstay Group	0.1x	-3.5%	US$88.06m
RGD Real Good Food	0.04x	n/a	US$1.84m
UKR Ukrproduct Group	0.03x	n/a	US$1.24m

5 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: HOTC is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.6x) compared to the UK Food industry average (0.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HOTC's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HOTC PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	2.6x
Fair PS Ratio	1.3x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: HOTC is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2024/01/25 05:02
End of Day Share Price	2024/01/25 00:00
Earnings	2023/07/02
Annual Earnings	2023/07/02

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Hotel Chocolat Group plc is covered by 3 analysts. 1 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Robert Chantry	Berenberg
Wayne Brown	Panmure Liberum
Jonathan Pritchard	Peel Hunt LLP