Earnings Update: Harbour Energy plc (LON:HBR) Just Reported Its Half-Year Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts

It's been a pretty great week for Harbour Energy plc (LON:HBR) shareholders, with its shares surging 20% to UK£2.31 in the week since its latest half-yearly results. It was a pretty bad result overall; while revenues were in line with expectations at US$5.2b, statutory losses exploded to US$0.12 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, Harbour Energy's eight analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$9.71b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Harbour Energy forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.21 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$9.58b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.41 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the large cut to new EPS forecasts.

See our latest analysis for Harbour Energy

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at UK£2.81, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Harbour Energy at UK£3.78 per share, while the most bearish prices it at UK£2.20. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Harbour Energy's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Harbour Energy's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 21% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 13% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Harbour Energy is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at UK£2.81, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Harbour Energy analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Harbour Energy (at least 1 which is a bit concerning) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.