NWF Group (AIM:NWF) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of NWF when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

NWF (£2.5) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (£1.08)

NWF fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	0/6
Future Growth	2/6
Past Performance	1/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	5/6

NWF Stock Overview

NWF Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, primarily engages in the sale and distribution of fuel oils in the United Kingdom.

Rewards

Earnings are forecast to grow 3.57% per year

Pays a reliable dividend of 3%

Risk Analysis

Large one-off items impacting financial results

NWF Group Competitors

IGas Energy

AIM:IGAS

UK£102.7m

Pharos Energy

LSE:PHAR

UK£79.4m

Enwell Energy

AIM:ENW

UK£71.2m

Hargreaves Services

AIM:HSP

UK£128.5m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for NWF Group
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	UK£2.50
52 Week High	UK£2.60
52 Week Low	UK£1.83
Beta	0.43
1 Month Change	10.13%
3 Month Change	12.11%
1 Year Change	33.69%
3 Year Change	54.32%
5 Year Change	46.20%
Change since IPO	380.77%

Recent News & Updates

Aug 05

NWF Group (LON:NWF) Is Paying Out A Larger Dividend Than Last Year

NWF Group plc ( LON:NWF ) has announced that it will be increasing its dividend from last year's comparable payment on...

Shareholder Returns

	NWF	GB Oil and Gas	GB Market
7D	2.0%	-3.4%	-3.1%
1Y	33.7%	-9.7%	-13.8%

Return vs Industry: NWF exceeded the UK Oil and Gas industry which returned -9.7% over the past year.

Return vs Market: NWF exceeded the UK Market which returned -13.8% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is NWF's price volatile compared to industry and market?
NWF volatility
NWF Average Weekly Movement	2.8%
Oil and Gas Industry Average Movement	8.6%
Market Average Movement	5.2%
10% most volatile stocks in GB Market	10.8%
10% least volatile stocks in GB Market	2.7%

Stable Share Price: NWF is less volatile than 75% of UK stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 3% a week.

Volatility Over Time: NWF's weekly volatility (3%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1871	1,300	Richard Whiting	https://www.nwf.co.uk

NWF Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, primarily engages in the sale and distribution of fuel oils in the United Kingdom. It operates through Fuels, Food, and Feeds segments. The Fuels segment sells domestic heating, industrial, and road fuels.

NWF Group Fundamentals Summary

How do NWF Group's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
NWF fundamental statistics
Market Cap	UK£123.52m
Earnings (TTM)	UK£8.40m
Revenue (TTM)	UK£878.60m

14.7x

P/E Ratio

0.1x

P/S Ratio

Is NWF overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
NWF income statement (TTM)
Revenue	UK£878.60m
Cost of Revenue	UK£823.30m
Gross Profit	UK£55.30m
Other Expenses	UK£46.90m
Earnings	UK£8.40m

Last Reported Earnings

May 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.17
Gross Margin	6.29%
Net Profit Margin	0.96%
Debt/Equity Ratio	0%

How did NWF perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

3.0%

Current Dividend Yield

44%

Payout Ratio

Does NWF pay a reliable dividends?

See NWF dividend history and benchmarks

When do you need to buy NWF by to receive an upcoming dividend?
NWF Group dividend dates
Ex Dividend Date	Nov 03 2022
Dividend Pay Date	Dec 09 2022
Days until Ex dividend	39 days
Days until Dividend pay date	75 days

Does NWF pay a reliable dividends?

See NWF dividend history and benchmarks

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is NWF undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NWF?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for NWF. This is calculated by dividing NWF's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is NWF's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	UK£123.52m

NWF key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	5.5x
PEG Ratio	4.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NWF's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

NWF PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for NWF vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	2.8x
IGAS IGas Energy	4x	-31.1%	UK£102.7m
PHAR Pharos Energy	2x	-42.3%	UK£79.4m
ENW Enwell Energy	1.5x	-27.7%	UK£71.2m
HSP Hargreaves Services	3.7x	-27.6%	UK£128.5m
NWF NWF Group	14.7x	3.6%	UK£123.5m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NWF is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.7x) compared to the peer average (2.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NWF's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Oil and Gas Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NWF is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.7x) compared to the UK Oil and Gas industry average (5.4x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NWF's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NWF PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	14.7x
Fair PE Ratio	7.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NWF is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.9x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NWF when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NWF (£2.5) is trading above our estimate of fair value (£1.08)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NWF is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Future Growth

How is NWF Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

3.6%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: NWF's forecast earnings growth (3.6% per year) is above the savings rate (0.9%).

Earnings vs Market: NWF's earnings (3.6% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the UK market (8.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: NWF's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: NWF's revenue (6.8% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the UK market (4.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: NWF's revenue (6.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: NWF's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (14.9%).

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Past Performance

How has NWF Group performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

1/6

Past Performance Score 1/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-1.7%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: NWF has a large one-off loss of £8.3M impacting its May 31 2022 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: NWF's current net profit margins (1%) are lower than last year (1.2%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: NWF's earnings have declined by 1.7% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: NWF's earnings growth over the past year (7.7%) exceeds its 5-year average (-1.7% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: NWF earnings growth over the past year (7.7%) underperformed the Oil and Gas industry 356.3%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: NWF's Return on Equity (12.3%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is NWF Group's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: NWF's short term assets (£118.3M) exceed its short term liabilities (£112.9M).

Long Term Liabilities: NWF's short term assets (£118.3M) exceed its long term liabilities (£32.9M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: NWF is debt free.

Reducing Debt: NWF has no debt compared to 5 years ago when its debt to equity ratio was 36.6%.

Debt Coverage: NWF has no debt, therefore it does not need to be covered by operating cash flow.

Interest Coverage: NWF has no debt, therefore coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is NWF Group current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

5/6

Dividend Score 5/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

3.00%

Current Dividend Yield

Upcoming Dividend Payment

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: NWF's dividend (3%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the UK market (2.05%).

High Dividend: NWF's dividend (3%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the UK market (5.77%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: NWF's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: NWF's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (43.8%), NWF's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its low cash payout ratio (14%), NWF's dividend payments are thoroughly covered by cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

5.3yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Richard Whiting (58 yo)

no data

Tenure

UK£1,069,000

Compensation

Mr. Richard A. Whiting, BA, serves as the Chief Executive Officer of NWF Group plc. Mr. Whiting has been an Executive Director of NWF Group plc since October 1, 2007 and previously served as its Chief Exec...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Richard's total compensation ($USD1.17M) is above average for companies of similar size in the UK market ($USD327.98K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Richard's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: NWF's management team is seasoned and experienced (5.3 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: NWF's board of directors are considered experienced (5.4 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Top Shareholders

Top 25 shareholders own 53.69% of the company

Ownership	Name	Shares	Current Value	Change %	Portfolio %
6.8%	Schroder Investment Management Limited	3,359,262	£8.4m	87.36%	0.01%
4.82%	Lífeyrissjóðs Vestmannaeyja	2,382,389	£6.0m	0%	13.78%
4.82%	Festa lífeyrissjóður	2,382,389	£6.0m	0%	4.17%
4.82%	Sameinadi lífeyrissjódurinn	2,382,389	£6.0m	0%	100%
4.45%	Hargreave Hale Limited, Asset Management Arm	2,200,000	£5.5m	0%	0.15%
3.64%	Close Asset Management Limited	1,798,365	£4.5m	0%	0.06%
2.99%	J.M. Finn & Co. Ltd.	1,476,203	£3.7m	0%	0.08%
2.19%	FMR LLC	1,083,269	£2.7m	0%	no data
1.97%	Rathbone Investment Management Limited	972,653	£2.4m	0%	0.01%
1.95%	Ruffer LLP	965,832	£2.4m	0%	0.03%
1.75%	James Sharp & Co., Asset Management Arm	865,906	£2.2m	0%	0.31%
1.74%	Puma Investment Management Limited	860,768	£2.2m	0%	1.15%
1.37%	Blankstone Sington Limited, Asset Management Arm	675,642	£1.7m	0%	1.89%
1.21%	Brewin Dolphin Limited	596,885	£1.5m	0%	0.02%
1.17%	Integrated Financial Arrangements plc, Asset Management Arm	576,230	£1.4m	0%	0.08%
1.01%	McInroy & Wood Limited	498,250	£1.2m	0%	0.12%
0.97%	Barclays Bank PLC, Wealth and Investment Management Division	480,949	£1.2m	0%	0.01%
0.83%	Richard Whiting	412,455	£1.0m	0%	no data
0.83%	HBOS Investment Fund Managers Limited	410,957	£1.0m	0%	0.01%
0.82%	Charles Stanley & Co. Ltd, Asset Management Arm	403,336	£1.0m	0%	0.01%
0.81%	Hawksmoor Investment Management Limited	400,730	£1.0m	0%	0.28%
0.75%	Fidelity International Ltd	369,186	£923.0k	0%	no data
0.66%	R.C. Brown Investment Management PLC	327,064	£817.7k	0%	1.05%
0.66%	A J Bell Holdings Limited, Asset Management Arm	326,337	£815.8k	0%	0.01%
0.65%	Investment Funds Direct Limited, Securities Investments	319,697	£799.2k	0%	0.23%

Ticker	Exchange	Primary Security	Security Type	Country	Currency	Listed on
NWF	AIM (London Stock Exchange AIM Market)	Yes	Ordinary Shares	GB	GBP	Mar 1993
NYY	DB (Deutsche Boerse AG)	Yes	Ordinary Shares	DE	EUR	Mar 1993

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/09/24 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/09/23 00:00
Earnings	2022/05/31
Annual Earnings	2022/05/31