Stock Analysis

XPS Pensions Group (LON:XPS) jumps 15% this week, though earnings growth is still tracking behind three-year shareholder returns

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LSE:XPS

One simple way to benefit from the stock market is to buy an index fund. But if you choose individual stocks with prowess, you can make superior returns. Just take a look at XPS Pensions Group plc (LON:XPS), which is up 75%, over three years, soundly beating the market return of 4.1% (not including dividends). On the other hand, the returns haven't been quite so good recently, with shareholders up just 45% , including dividends .

The past week has proven to be lucrative for XPS Pensions Group investors, so let's see if fundamentals drove the company's three-year performance.

See our latest analysis for XPS Pensions Group

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

XPS Pensions Group was able to grow its EPS at 35% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. The average annual share price increase of 20% is actually lower than the EPS growth. So one could reasonably conclude that the market has cooled on the stock.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

LSE:XPS Earnings Per Share Growth February 20th 2024

We know that XPS Pensions Group has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? If you are thinking of buying or selling XPS Pensions Group stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, XPS Pensions Group's TSR for the last 3 years was 102%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that XPS Pensions Group has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 45% in the last twelve months. That's including the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 16% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - XPS Pensions Group has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on British exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether XPS Pensions Group is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.