Stock Analysis

The three-year returns for OSB Group's (LON:OSB) shareholders have been , yet its earnings growth was even better

LSE:OSB
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OSB Group Plc (LON:OSB) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 19% in the last month. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been less than pleasing. Truth be told the share price declined 13% in three years and that return, Dear Reader, falls short of what you could have got from passive investing with an index fund.

While the stock has risen 5.5% in the past week but long term shareholders are still in the red, let's see what the fundamentals can tell us.

View our latest analysis for OSB Group

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Although the share price is down over three years, OSB Group actually managed to grow EPS by 18% per year in that time. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

It is a little bizarre to see the share price down, despite a strong improvement to earnings per share. Therefore, we should look at some other metrics to try to understand why the market is disappointed.

We note that the dividend seems healthy enough, so that probably doesn't explain the share price drop. It's good to see that OSB Group has increased its revenue over the last three years. If the company can keep growing revenue, there may be an opportunity for investors. You might have to dig deeper to understand the recent share price weakness.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
LSE:OSB Earnings and Revenue Growth May 5th 2024

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on OSB Group

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, OSB Group's TSR for the last 3 years was 8.4%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 7.4% in the last year, OSB Group shareholders lost 4.4% (even including dividends). However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 5% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand OSB Group better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for OSB Group you should know about.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on British exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether OSB Group is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.