Institutional investors may overlook Greggs plc's (LON:GRG) recent UK£93m market cap drop as long-term gains remain positive

Key Insights

• Given the large stake in the stock by institutions, Greggs' stock price might be vulnerable to their trading decisions
• The top 20 shareholders own 51% of the company
• Insiders have sold recently

Every investor in Greggs plc (LON:GRG) should be aware of the most powerful shareholder groups. With 83% stake, institutions possess the maximum shares in the company. Put another way, the group faces the maximum upside potential (or downside risk).

No shareholder likes losing money on their investments, especially institutional investors who saw their holdings drop 3.2% in value last week. However, the 12% one-year return to shareholders may have helped lessen their pain. We would assume however, that they would be on the lookout for weakness in the future.

In the chart below, we zoom in on the different ownership groups of Greggs.

Check out our latest analysis for Greggs

What Does The Institutional Ownership Tell Us About Greggs?

Many institutions measure their performance against an index that approximates the local market. So they usually pay more attention to companies that are included in major indices.

Greggs already has institutions on the share registry. Indeed, they own a respectable stake in the company. This can indicate that the company has a certain degree of credibility in the investment community. However, it is best to be wary of relying on the supposed validation that comes with institutional investors. They too, get it wrong sometimes. When multiple institutions own a stock, there's always a risk that they are in a 'crowded trade'. When such a trade goes wrong, multiple parties may compete to sell stock fast. This risk is higher in a company without a history of growth. You can see Greggs' historic earnings and revenue below, but keep in mind there's always more to the story.

Institutional investors own over 50% of the company, so together than can probably strongly influence board decisions. We note that hedge funds don't have a meaningful investment in Greggs. BlackRock, Inc. is currently the largest shareholder, with 6.1% of shares outstanding. Meanwhile, the second and third largest shareholders, hold 4.7% and 4.3%, of the shares outstanding, respectively.

After doing some more digging, we found that the top 20 have the combined ownership of 51% in the company, suggesting that no single shareholder has significant control over the company.

While it makes sense to study institutional ownership data for a company, it also makes sense to study analyst sentiments to know which way the wind is blowing. There are a reasonable number of analysts covering the stock, so it might be useful to find out their aggregate view on the future.

Insider Ownership Of Greggs

The definition of company insiders can be subjective and does vary between jurisdictions. Our data reflects individual insiders, capturing board members at the very least. Company management run the business, but the CEO will answer to the board, even if he or she is a member of it.

Most consider insider ownership a positive because it can indicate the board is well aligned with other shareholders. However, on some occasions too much power is concentrated within this group.

Our data suggests that insiders own under 1% of Greggs plc in their own names. Keep in mind that it's a big company, and the insiders own UK£4.4m worth of shares. The absolute value might be more important than the proportional share. It is always good to see at least some insider ownership, but it might be worth checking if those insiders have been selling.

General Public Ownership

The general public-- including retail investors -- own 16% stake in the company, and hence can't easily be ignored. While this group can't necessarily call the shots, it can certainly have a real influence on how the company is run.

Next Steps:

While it is well worth considering the different groups that own a company, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Greggs that you should be aware of.

If you are like me, you may want to think about whether this company will grow or shrink. Luckily, you can check this free report showing analyst forecasts for its future.

NB: Figures in this article are calculated using data from the last twelve months, which refer to the 12-month period ending on the last date of the month the financial statement is dated. This may not be consistent with full year annual report figures.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com