Hollywood Bowl Group (LON:BOWL) Strong Profits May Be Masking Some Underlying Issues

The recent earnings posted by Hollywood Bowl Group plc (LON:BOWL) were solid, but the stock didn't move as much as we expected. However the statutory profit number doesn't tell the whole story, and we have found some factors which might be of concern to shareholders.

Check out our latest analysis for Hollywood Bowl Group

Zooming In On Hollywood Bowl Group's Earnings

Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.

For the year to September 2021, Hollywood Bowl Group had an accrual ratio of -0.22. Therefore, its statutory earnings were very significantly less than its free cashflow. To wit, it produced free cash flow of UK£19m during the period, dwarfing its reported profit of UK£1.73m. Hollywood Bowl Group's free cash flow improved over the last year, which is generally good to see. Having said that, there is more to consider. We can look at how unusual items in the profit and loss statement impacted its accrual ratio, as well as explore how dilution is impacting shareholders negatively.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

One essential aspect of assessing earnings quality is to look at how much a company is diluting shareholders. As it happens, Hollywood Bowl Group issued 8.3% more new shares over the last year. As a result, its net income is now split between a greater number of shares. To celebrate net income while ignoring dilution is like rejoicing because you have a single slice of a larger pizza, but ignoring the fact that the pizza is now cut into many more slices. Check out Hollywood Bowl Group's historical EPS growth by clicking on this link.

How Is Dilution Impacting Hollywood Bowl Group's Earnings Per Share? (EPS)

Unfortunately, Hollywood Bowl Group's profit is down 91% per year over three years. The good news is that profit was up 25% in the last twelve months. But EPS was less impressive, up only 16% in that time. So you can see that the dilution has had a bit of an impact on shareholders.

Changes in the share price do tend to reflect changes in earnings per share, in the long run. So it will certainly be a positive for shareholders if Hollywood Bowl Group can grow EPS persistently. But on the other hand, we'd be far less excited to learn profit (but not EPS) was improving. For the ordinary retail shareholder, EPS is a great measure to check your hypothetical "share" of the company's profit.

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

While the accrual ratio might bode well, we also note that Hollywood Bowl Group's profit was boosted by unusual items worth UK£1.2m in the last twelve months. We can't deny that higher profits generally leave us optimistic, but we'd prefer it if the profit were to be sustainable. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. If Hollywood Bowl Group doesn't see that contribution repeat, then all else being equal we'd expect its profit to drop over the current year.

Our Take On Hollywood Bowl Group's Profit Performance

In conclusion, Hollywood Bowl Group's accrual ratio suggests its earnings are well backed by cash but its boost from unusual items is probably not going to be repeated consistently. Further, the dilution means profits are now split more ways. Having considered these factors, we don't think Hollywood Bowl Group's statutory profits give an overly harsh view of the business. Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. For example - Hollywood Bowl Group has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

Our examination of Hollywood Bowl Group has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.