Lottomatica Group Valuation

Is LTMCM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of LTMCM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: LTMCM (€12.22) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€20.31)

Significantly Below Fair Value: LTMCM is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LTMCM?

Key metric: As LTMCM is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for LTMCM. This is calculated by dividing LTMCM's market cap by their current earnings.
What is LTMCM's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	53.2x
Earnings	€59.84m
Market Cap	€3.18b

LTMCM key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	2.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	10.5x
PEG Ratio	1.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does LTMCM's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for LTMCM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	27.5x
PTEC Playtech	23.5x	18.5%	UK£2.2b
RNK Rank Group	33.9x	33.3%	UK£416.9m
GRG Greggs	19.8x	7.0%	UK£2.7b
TRN Trainline	32.7x	15.1%	UK£1.8b
LTMCM Lottomatica Group	53.2x	34.3%	€3.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: LTMCM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (53.2x) compared to the peer average (27.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does LTMCM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Hospitality Industry?

1 Company	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
TAST Tasty	0.4x	-75.9%	US$2.36m

No more companies available in this PE range

1 Company		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: LTMCM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (53.2x) compared to the UK Hospitality industry average (20.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LTMCM's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LTMCM PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	53.2x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate LTMCM's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst LTMCM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	n/a	€16.00 0%	6.9%	€18.00	€14.00	n/a	12
Nov ’25	n/a	€15.88 0%	7.1%	€18.00	€14.00	n/a	12
Oct ’25	n/a	€15.43 0%	5.0%	€16.50	€14.00	n/a	11
Sep ’25	n/a	€14.96 0%	8.1%	€16.20	€12.50	n/a	11
Aug ’25	n/a	€14.63 0%	8.4%	€16.00	€12.45	n/a	10
Jul ’25	n/a	€14.37 0%	8.5%	€16.00	€12.45	n/a	10
Jun ’25	€11.02	€14.58 +32.3%	7.5%	€16.00	€12.50	n/a	9
May ’25	n/a	€14.46 0%	7.2%	€16.00	€12.50	n/a	9
Apr ’25	n/a	€14.06 0%	8.8%	€16.00	€12.50	n/a	9
Mar ’25	n/a	€14.06 0%	8.8%	€16.00	€12.50	n/a	9
Feb ’25	n/a	€13.74 0%	9.8%	€16.00	€12.00	n/a	9
Jan ’25	n/a	€13.30 0%	8.9%	€15.00	€12.00	n/a	9
Dec ’24	n/a	€13.19 0%	8.4%	€15.00	€12.00	n/a	9
Nov ’24	n/a	€13.01 0%	7.6%	€15.00	€12.00	n/a	9
Oct ’24	n/a	€13.01 0%	7.6%	€15.00	€12.00	n/a	9
Sep ’24	€9.42	€13.01 +38.1%	7.6%	€15.00	€12.00	n/a	9
Aug ’24	€9.10	€12.65 +39.1%	5.5%	€13.60	€12.00	n/a	8
Jul ’24	n/a	€12.16 0%	6.3%	€13.60	€11.00	n/a	7

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.