Greggs plc

BATS-CHIXE:GRGL Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£2.9b

Greggs Valuation

Is GRGL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GRGL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GRGL (£28) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£29.08)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GRGL is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GRGL?

Key metric: As GRGL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for GRGL. This is calculated by dividing GRGL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is GRGL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio20.8x
EarningsUK£137.30m
Market CapUK£2.85b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GRGL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for GRGL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average30.1x
ROO Deliveroo
42.2x40.2%UK£2.1b
MAB Mitchells & Butlers
9.8x7.0%UK£1.5b
DOM Domino's Pizza Group
15.6x5.8%UK£1.2b
SSPG SSP Group
52.7x36.3%UK£1.4b
GRGL Greggs
20.8x6.0%UK£2.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GRGL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.8x) compared to the peer average (30.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GRGL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Hospitality Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TAST Tasty
0.4x-73.4%US$2.45m
No more companies available in this PE range
No. of Companies5PE01224364860+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GRGL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.8x) compared to the UK Hospitality industry average (20.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GRGL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GRGL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio20.8x
Fair PE Ratio22.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: GRGL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GRGL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£28.00
UK£33.08
+18.1%
11.3%UK£40.40UK£24.00n/a12
Dec ’25UK£26.98
UK£33.14
+22.8%
11.7%UK£40.40UK£24.00n/a11
Nov ’25UK£27.56
UK£33.32
+20.9%
10.4%UK£40.40UK£26.00n/a11
Oct ’25UK£29.62
UK£33.32
+12.5%
10.4%UK£40.40UK£26.00n/a11
Sep ’25UK£31.76
UK£33.14
+4.3%
10.7%UK£40.40UK£26.00n/a11
Aug ’25UK£31.22
UK£33.14
+6.2%
10.7%UK£40.40UK£26.00n/a11
Jul ’25UK£27.46
UK£32.36
+17.8%
11.5%UK£40.00UK£26.00n/a10
Jun ’25UK£29.26
UK£32.28
+10.3%
11.0%UK£40.00UK£26.00n/a11
May ’25UK£27.10
UK£32.04
+18.2%
12.8%UK£40.00UK£25.00n/a10
Apr ’25UK£28.78
UK£32.15
+11.7%
13.1%UK£40.00UK£25.00n/a10
Mar ’25UK£27.44
UK£32.04
+16.8%
13.1%UK£40.00UK£25.00n/a10
Feb ’25UK£26.12
UK£32.04
+22.7%
13.1%UK£40.00UK£25.00n/a10
Jan ’25UK£26.04
UK£32.02
+23.0%
13.0%UK£40.00UK£25.00UK£27.689
Dec ’24UK£24.78
UK£32.27
+30.2%
12.4%UK£40.00UK£25.00UK£26.9810
Nov ’24UK£24.02
UK£32.27
+34.3%
12.4%UK£40.00UK£25.00UK£27.5610
Oct ’24UK£24.62
UK£31.92
+29.6%
12.0%UK£40.00UK£25.00UK£29.6211
Sep ’24UK£24.56
UK£31.61
+28.7%
11.8%UK£40.00UK£25.00UK£31.7611
Aug ’24UK£25.60
UK£31.79
+24.2%
11.6%UK£40.00UK£25.00UK£31.2211
Jul ’24UK£25.52
UK£31.79
+24.6%
11.6%UK£40.00UK£25.00UK£27.4611
Jun ’24UK£27.12
UK£31.79
+17.2%
11.6%UK£40.00UK£25.00UK£29.2611
May ’24UK£28.22
UK£31.61
+12.0%
11.8%UK£40.00UK£25.00UK£27.1011
Apr ’24UK£27.74
UK£30.80
+11.0%
12.9%UK£40.00UK£25.00UK£28.7811
Mar ’24UK£27.50
UK£29.83
+8.5%
15.0%UK£38.45UK£20.00UK£27.4410
Feb ’24UK£26.94
UK£29.63
+10.0%
14.9%UK£38.45UK£20.00UK£26.1210
Jan ’24UK£23.40
UK£28.03
+19.8%
20.2%UK£38.45UK£18.00UK£26.0410

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/02 08:07
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/02 00:00
Earnings2024/06/29
Annual Earnings2023/12/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Greggs plc is covered by 33 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Richard TaylorBarclays
Robert ChantryBerenberg
Matthew AbrahamBerenberg