Greggs plc

BATS-CHIXE:GRGL Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£1.7b

Greggs Valuation

Is GRGL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GRGL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

UK£13.76
Fair Value
23.2% overvalued intrinsic discount
12
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: GRGL (£16.95) is trading above our estimate of fair value (£13.76)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GRGL is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GRGL?

Key metric: As GRGL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for GRGL. This is calculated by dividing GRGL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is GRGL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio11.8x
EarningsUK£144.80m
Market CapUK£1.72b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GRGL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for GRGL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average19.7x
MAB Mitchells & Butlers
8.6x5.07%UK£1.4b
DOM Domino's Pizza Group
9.7x5.03%UK£754.7m
JDW J D Wetherspoon
10.1x5.92%UK£683.7m
YNGA Young's Brewery
50.4x34.46%UK£450.0m
GRGL Greggs
11.8x0.04%UK£1.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GRGL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.8x) compared to the peer average (19.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GRGL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Hospitality Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
BOW Bow Street Group
0.7x-63.30%US$15.09m
No more companies available in this PE range
No. of Companies6PE01632486480+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GRGL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.8x) compared to the UK Hospitality industry average (15.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GRGL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GRGL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio11.8x
Fair PE Ratio14x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: GRGL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GRGL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£16.95
UK£20.05
+18.31%
21.49%UK£26.70UK£13.30n/a12
Sep ’26UK£15.90
UK£20.66
+29.91%
24.80%UK£30.60UK£13.30n/a12
Aug ’26UK£15.85
UK£20.66
+30.32%
24.80%UK£30.60UK£13.30n/a12
Jul ’26UK£19.69
UK£23.13
+17.45%
21.55%UK£32.50UK£13.30n/a11
Jun ’26UK£20.68
UK£23.20
+12.18%
20.59%UK£32.50UK£13.30n/a12
May ’26UK£18.27
UK£23.16
+26.75%
20.63%UK£32.50UK£13.30n/a12
Apr ’26UK£17.83
UK£23.16
+29.87%
20.63%UK£32.50UK£13.30n/a12
Mar ’26UK£21.00
UK£28.70
+36.68%
21.60%UK£40.40UK£17.33n/a12
Feb ’26UK£21.56
UK£28.70
+33.13%
21.60%UK£40.40UK£17.33n/a12
Jan ’26UK£27.68
UK£33.08
+19.51%
11.25%UK£40.40UK£24.00n/a12
Dec ’25UK£26.98
UK£33.14
+22.84%
11.71%UK£40.40UK£24.00n/a11
Nov ’25UK£27.56
UK£33.32
+20.91%
10.43%UK£40.40UK£26.00n/a11
Oct ’25UK£29.62
UK£33.32
+12.50%
10.43%UK£40.40UK£26.00UK£17.1111
Sep ’25UK£31.76
UK£33.14
+4.35%
10.68%UK£40.40UK£26.00UK£15.9011
Aug ’25UK£31.22
UK£33.14
+6.15%
10.68%UK£40.40UK£26.00UK£15.8511
Jul ’25UK£27.46
UK£32.36
+17.83%
11.47%UK£40.00UK£26.00UK£19.6910
Jun ’25UK£29.26
UK£32.28
+10.31%
10.99%UK£40.00UK£26.00UK£20.6811
May ’25UK£27.10
UK£32.04
+18.21%
12.84%UK£40.00UK£25.00UK£18.2710
Apr ’25UK£28.78
UK£32.15
+11.69%
13.06%UK£40.00UK£25.00UK£17.8310
Mar ’25UK£27.44
UK£32.04
+16.76%
13.13%UK£40.00UK£25.00UK£21.0010
Feb ’25UK£26.12
UK£32.04
+22.66%
13.13%UK£40.00UK£25.00UK£21.5610
Jan ’25UK£26.04
UK£32.02
+22.97%
12.99%UK£40.00UK£25.00UK£27.689
Dec ’24UK£24.78
UK£32.27
+30.23%
12.44%UK£40.00UK£25.00UK£26.9810
Nov ’24UK£24.02
UK£32.27
+34.35%
12.44%UK£40.00UK£25.00UK£27.5610
Oct ’24UK£24.62
UK£31.92
+29.64%
12.01%UK£40.00UK£25.00UK£29.6211
UK£20.1
Fair Value
15.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
12
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/10/06 14:17
End of Day Share Price 2025/10/06 00:00
Earnings2025/06/28
Annual Earnings2024/12/28

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Greggs plc is covered by 34 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Richard TaylorBarclays
Matthew AbrahamBerenberg
Nigel ParsonCanaccord Genuity