LSE:FIVE

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

X5 Retail Group N.V. creates, develops, and operates grocery retail stores primarily in Russia.

Rewards

Trading at 46.4% below its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 14.85% per year

Risk Analysis

Interest payments are not well covered by earnings

Dividend of 4.2% is not well covered by earnings



Snowflake Analysis

Reasonable growth potential and slightly overvalued.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has X5 Retail Group's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: FIVE has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

7.1%

FIVE

4.6%

GB Consumer Retailing

0.5%

GB Market


1 Year Return

45.6%

FIVE

11.1%

GB Consumer Retailing

7.0%

GB Market

Return vs Industry: FIVE exceeded the UK Consumer Retailing industry which returned 11.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: FIVE exceeded the UK Market which returned 7% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

FIVEIndustryMarket
7 Day7.1%4.6%0.5%
30 Day1.3%0.9%-0.3%
90 Day-5.0%-1.1%0.4%
1 Year52.7%45.6%15.5%11.1%12.6%7.0%
3 Year22.8%12.2%8.0%0.4%18.7%3.6%
5 Year213.5%186.3%46.5%32.5%41.8%9.3%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is X5 Retail Group's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is X5 Retail Group undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

46.4%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: FIVE ($34.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($64.31)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FIVE is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: FIVE is poor value based on its PE Ratio (22.3x) compared to the Consumer Retailing industry average (22.3x).

PE vs Market: FIVE is poor value based on its PE Ratio (22.3x) compared to the UK market (17.2x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: FIVE is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (1.5x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: FIVE is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (5.1x) compared to the GB Consumer Retailing industry average (1.4x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is X5 Retail Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 15 analysts?

14.9%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: FIVE's forecast earnings growth (14.9% per year) is above the savings rate (0.5%).

Earnings vs Market: FIVE's earnings (14.9% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the UK market (12.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: FIVE's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: FIVE's revenue (9.7% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the UK market (3.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: FIVE's revenue (9.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: FIVE's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (23.9%)


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has X5 Retail Group performed over the past 5 years?

18.4%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: FIVE has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: FIVE's current net profit margins (1.6%) are lower than last year (1.9%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: FIVE's earnings have grown by 18.4% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: FIVE's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: FIVE had negative earnings growth (-4.2%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Consumer Retailing industry average (-4.2%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: Whilst FIVE's Return on Equity (22.69%) is high, this metric is skewed due to their high level of debt.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is X5 Retail Group's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: FIVE's short term assets (RUB148.6B) do not cover its short term liabilities (RUB328.4B).

Long Term Liabilities: FIVE's short term assets (RUB148.6B) do not cover its long term liabilities (RUB569.6B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: FIVE's debt to equity ratio (192.9%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: FIVE had negative shareholder equity 5 years ago, but is now positive and has therefore improved.

Debt Coverage: FIVE's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (57.4%).

Interest Coverage: FIVE's interest payments on its debt are not well covered by EBIT (2x coverage).


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: FIVE has a high level of physical assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: FIVE's debt is not covered by short term assets (assets are 0.7x debt).


Next Steps

Dividend

What is X5 Retail Group's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

4.20%

Current Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

company4.2%marketbottom25%1.9%markettop25%5.2%industryaverage3.5%forecastin3Years5.7%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: FIVE's dividend (4.2%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the UK market (1.95%).

High Dividend: FIVE's dividend (4.2%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the UK market (5.2%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Whilst dividend payments have been stable, FIVE has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years.

Growing Dividend: FIVE's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 2 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: With its high payout ratio (93.8%), FIVE's dividend payments are not well covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: FIVE's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be covered by earnings (80.7% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

What is the CEO of X5 Retail Group's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

2.5yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Igor Shekhterman (49yo)

4.1yrs

Tenure

₽347,000,000

Compensation

Mr. Igor Shekhterman has been the Chief Executive Officer and Member of Management Board at X5 Retail Group N.V. of Alfa Group Consortium since November 12, 2015 and serves as its Chairman of Management Bo ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Igor's total compensation ($USD5.46M) is above average for companies of similar size in the UK market ($USD3.56M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Igor's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Management Age and Tenure

2.5yrs

Average Tenure

49yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: FIVE's management team is considered experienced (2.5 years average tenure).


Board Age and Tenure

3.6yrs

Average Tenure

49yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: FIVE's board of directors are considered experienced (3.6 years average tenure).


Insider Trading

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Management Team

  • Elena Konnova (48yo)

    Corporate Communication Director

    • Tenure: 4.9yrs
  • Frank Lhoëst (57yo)

    Corporate Secretary and Member of Management Board

    • Tenure: 0yrs
    • Compensation: ₽33.00m
  • Svetlana Demyashkevich

    Chief Financial Officer

    • Tenure: 2.5yrs
  • Vladimir Rusanov

    Head of Public Relations

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Igor Shekhterman (49yo)

    Chairman of Management Board

    • Tenure: 4.1yrs
    • Compensation: ₽347.00m
  • Dmitry Agureev (49yo)

    Head of Corporate Security

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Ekaterina Lobacheva

    General Counsel

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Tatiana Krasnoperova

    Director of Human Resources & Organisational Development

    • Tenure: 0.9yrs
  • Natalia Zagvozdina

    Head of Corporate Finance & IR

    • Tenure: 0yrs
  • Quinten Peer

    Member of the Management Board

    • Tenure: 0.6yrs

Board Members

  • Nadia Shouraboura (49yo)

    Member of Supervisory Board

    • Tenure: 1.3yrs
    • Compensation: ₽4.00m
  • Mikhail Fridman (55yo)

    Member of Supervisory Board

    • Tenure: 13.6yrs
  • Stephan DuCharme (55yo)

    Chairman of Supervisory Board

    • Tenure: 4.1yrs
    • Compensation: ₽39.00m
  • Mikhail Kuchment (46yo)

    Member of Supervisory Board

    • Tenure: 4.1yrs
    • Compensation: ₽13.00m
  • Karl-Heinz Holland (52yo)

    Member of Supervisory Board

    • Tenure: 1.3yrs
    • Compensation: ₽4.00m
  • Alexander Torbakhov (48yo)

    Supervisory Board Member

    • Tenure: 0.9yrs
  • Geoff King (54yo)

    Member of Supervisory Board

    • Tenure: 4.6yrs
    • Compensation: ₽35.00m
  • Peter Demchenkov (46yo)

    Vice Chairman of Supervisory Board

    • Tenure: 0.8yrs
    • Compensation: ₽24.00m
  • Andrei Elinson (40yo)

    Member of Supervisory Board

    • Tenure: 3.6yrs

Company Information

X5 Retail Group N.V.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: X5 Retail Group N.V.
  • Ticker: FIVE
  • Exchange: LSE
  • Founded: 1975
  • Industry: Food Retail
  • Sector: Consumer Retailing
  • Market Cap: US$9.368b
  • Shares outstanding: 271.54m
  • Website: https://www.x5.ru

Number of Employees


Location

  • X5 Retail Group N.V.
  • Parkstraat 20
  • The Hague
  • Zuid-Holland
  • 2514 JK
  • Netherlands

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
FIVELSE (London Stock Exchange)YesGDR REP 0.25 SHS EUR1 REGSGBUSDMay 2005
PJPDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesGDR REP 0.25 SHS EUR1 REGSDEEURMay 2005
FIVEMISX (Micex - Rts)YesGDR REP 0.25 SHS EUR1 REGSRURUBMay 2005
FIVELBATS-CHIXE (BATS 'Chi-X Europe')YesGDR REP 0.25 SHS EUR1 REGSGBUSDMay 2005
FIVEWBAG (Wiener Boerse AG)YesGDR REP 0.25 SHS EUR1 REGSATEURMay 2005

Biography

X5 Retail Group N.V. creates, develops, and operates grocery retail stores primarily in Russia. As of November 11, 2019, the company operated 15,752 company-operated stores under the Pyaterochka, Perekrest ...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2019/12/11 20:55
End of Day Share Price2019/12/11 00:00
Earnings2019/09/30
Annual Earnings2018/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.