Is Vistry Group (LON:VTY) A Risky Investment?

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Vistry Group PLC (LON:VTY) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

When Is Debt A Problem?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

See our latest analysis for Vistry Group

What Is Vistry Group's Net Debt?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2023 Vistry Group had debt of UK£541.6m, up from UK£313.0m in one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of UK£213.0m, its net debt is less, at about UK£328.7m.

How Strong Is Vistry Group's Balance Sheet?

The latest balance sheet data shows that Vistry Group had liabilities of UK£1.64b due within a year, and liabilities of UK£1.14b falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of UK£213.0m as well as receivables valued at UK£569.3m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total UK£2.00b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of UK£3.15b. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Vistry Group has net debt of just 0.83 times EBITDA, indicating that it is certainly not a reckless borrower. And this view is supported by the solid interest coverage, with EBIT coming in at 8.7 times the interest expense over the last year. And we also note warmly that Vistry Group grew its EBIT by 12% last year, making its debt load easier to handle. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Vistry Group's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. In the last three years, Vistry Group's free cash flow amounted to 30% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.

Our View

Vistry Group's net debt to EBITDA was a real positive on this analysis, as was its interest cover. Having said that, its level of total liabilities somewhat sensitizes us to potential future risks to the balance sheet. When we consider all the factors mentioned above, we do feel a bit cautious about Vistry Group's use of debt. While we appreciate debt can enhance returns on equity, we'd suggest that shareholders keep close watch on its debt levels, lest they increase. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 2 warning signs with Vistry Group (at least 1 which is a bit unpleasant) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.