Morgan Sindall Group plc

BATS-CHIXE:MGNSL Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£1.7b

Morgan Sindall Group Valuation

Is MGNSL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MGNSL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
UK£42.96
Fair Value
14.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
6
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: MGNSL (£36.7) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£42.96)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MGNSL is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MGNSL?

Key metric: As MGNSL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MGNSL. This is calculated by dividing MGNSL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MGNSL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13.9x
EarningsUK£124.00m
Market CapUK£1.73b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MGNSL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MGNSL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.1x
BBY Balfour Beatty
10.3x3.4%UK£2.4b
KLR Keller Group
7.8x2.4%UK£982.8m
KIE Kier Group
13.3x14.7%UK£676.4m
RNWH Renew Holdings
12.9x7.7%UK£569.1m
MGNSL Morgan Sindall Group
13.9x2.7%UK£1.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MGNSL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.9x) compared to the peer average (11.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MGNSL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Construction Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No. of Companies16PE01020304050+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MGNSL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.9x) compared to the European Construction industry average (14x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MGNSL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MGNSL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.9x
Fair PE Ratio14.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MGNSL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MGNSL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£36.70
UK£39.19
+6.8%
7.8%UK£45.00UK£36.00n/a6
Feb ’26UK£36.85
UK£39.19
+6.4%
7.8%UK£45.00UK£36.00n/a6
Jan ’26UK£38.90
UK£38.19
-1.8%
10.7%UK£45.00UK£32.00n/a6
Dec ’25UK£37.90
UK£38.19
+0.8%
10.7%UK£45.00UK£32.00n/a6
Nov ’25UK£37.45
UK£38.19
+2.0%
10.7%UK£45.00UK£32.00n/a6
Oct ’25UK£31.00
UK£30.94
-0.2%
4.3%UK£32.90UK£29.30n/a5
Sep ’25UK£29.90
UK£30.94
+3.5%
4.3%UK£32.90UK£29.30n/a5
Aug ’25UK£28.05
UK£27.50
-2.0%
5.0%UK£30.00UK£26.30n/a5
Jul ’25UK£25.25
UK£27.50
+8.9%
5.0%UK£30.00UK£26.30n/a5
Jun ’25UK£25.03
UK£27.18
+8.6%
5.0%UK£30.00UK£26.00n/a6
May ’25UK£22.48
UK£26.93
+19.8%
5.9%UK£30.00UK£25.00n/a6
Apr ’25UK£23.25
UK£26.09
+12.2%
3.6%UK£27.60UK£25.00n/a6
Mar ’25UK£23.35
UK£26.09
+11.7%
3.6%UK£27.60UK£25.00n/a6
Feb ’25UK£22.85
UK£24.32
+6.4%
8.7%UK£27.60UK£21.00UK£36.855
Jan ’25UK£22.05
UK£24.32
+10.3%
8.7%UK£27.60UK£21.00UK£38.905
Dec ’24UK£20.65
UK£24.32
+17.8%
8.7%UK£27.60UK£21.00UK£37.905
Nov ’24UK£19.02
UK£24.20
+27.2%
8.9%UK£27.60UK£21.00UK£37.455
Oct ’24UK£20.60
UK£24.20
+17.5%
8.9%UK£27.60UK£21.00UK£31.005
Sep ’24UK£19.64
UK£24.00
+22.2%
9.2%UK£27.60UK£21.00UK£29.905
Aug ’24UK£19.16
UK£24.92
+30.1%
16.4%UK£31.00UK£20.00UK£28.055
Jul ’24UK£18.38
UK£24.92
+35.6%
16.4%UK£31.00UK£20.00UK£25.255
Jun ’24UK£18.54
UK£24.26
+30.9%
17.2%UK£29.70UK£19.00UK£25.035
May ’24UK£16.96
UK£24.22
+42.8%
17.0%UK£29.50UK£19.00UK£22.485
Apr ’24UK£16.90
UK£24.22
+43.3%
17.0%UK£29.50UK£19.00UK£23.255
Mar ’24UK£17.84
UK£24.22
+35.8%
17.0%UK£29.50UK£19.00UK£23.355
Feb ’24UK£16.44
UK£24.64
+49.9%
22.5%UK£30.00UK£15.00UK£22.855
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 6 Analysts
UK£39.14
Fair Value
6.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
6
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/07 23:57
End of Day Share Price 2025/02/07 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Morgan Sindall Group plc is covered by 18 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Robert ChantryBerenberg
Kevin CammackCavendish Historical (Cenkos Securities)
Jeremy Batstone-CarrCharles Stanley & Co. Ltd.