Morgan Sindall Group plc

BATS-CHIXE:MGNSL Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£1.8b

Morgan Sindall Group Valuation

Is MGNSL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MGNSL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MGNSL (£38) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£43.7)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MGNSL is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MGNSL?

Key metric: As MGNSL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MGNSL. This is calculated by dividing MGNSL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MGNSL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio14.4x
EarningsUK£124.00m
Market CapUK£1.79b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MGNSL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MGNSL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average12.2x
BBY Balfour Beatty
10x0.1%UK£2.3b
KLR Keller Group
8.7x2.4%UK£1.1b
RNWH Renew Holdings
17x7.2%UK£831.0m
KIE Kier Group
13x14.7%UK£663.0m
MGNSL Morgan Sindall Group
14.4x2.8%UK£1.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MGNSL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.4x) compared to the peer average (12.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MGNSL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Construction Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No. of Companies20PE01020304050+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MGNSL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.4x) compared to the European Construction industry average (13.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MGNSL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MGNSL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14.4x
Fair PE Ratio15.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MGNSL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MGNSL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£38.00
UK£38.19
+0.5%
10.7%UK£45.00UK£32.00n/a6
Nov ’25UK£37.45
UK£38.19
+2.0%
10.7%UK£45.00UK£32.00n/a6
Oct ’25UK£31.00
UK£30.94
-0.2%
4.3%UK£32.90UK£29.30n/a5
Sep ’25UK£29.90
UK£30.94
+3.5%
4.3%UK£32.90UK£29.30n/a5
Aug ’25UK£28.05
UK£27.50
-2.0%
5.0%UK£30.00UK£26.30n/a5
Jul ’25UK£25.25
UK£27.50
+8.9%
5.0%UK£30.00UK£26.30n/a5
Jun ’25UK£25.03
UK£27.18
+8.6%
5.0%UK£30.00UK£26.00n/a6
May ’25UK£22.48
UK£26.93
+19.8%
5.9%UK£30.00UK£25.00n/a6
Apr ’25UK£23.25
UK£26.09
+12.2%
3.6%UK£27.60UK£25.00n/a6
Mar ’25UK£23.35
UK£26.09
+11.7%
3.6%UK£27.60UK£25.00n/a6
Feb ’25UK£22.85
UK£24.32
+6.4%
8.7%UK£27.60UK£21.00n/a5
Jan ’25UK£22.05
UK£24.32
+10.3%
8.7%UK£27.60UK£21.00n/a5
Dec ’24UK£20.65
UK£24.32
+17.8%
8.7%UK£27.60UK£21.00n/a5
Nov ’24UK£19.02
UK£24.20
+27.2%
8.9%UK£27.60UK£21.00UK£37.455
Oct ’24UK£20.60
UK£24.20
+17.5%
8.9%UK£27.60UK£21.00UK£31.005
Sep ’24UK£19.64
UK£24.00
+22.2%
9.2%UK£27.60UK£21.00UK£29.905
Aug ’24UK£19.16
UK£24.92
+30.1%
16.4%UK£31.00UK£20.00UK£28.055
Jul ’24UK£18.38
UK£24.92
+35.6%
16.4%UK£31.00UK£20.00UK£25.255
Jun ’24UK£18.54
UK£24.26
+30.9%
17.2%UK£29.70UK£19.00UK£25.035
May ’24UK£16.96
UK£24.22
+42.8%
17.0%UK£29.50UK£19.00UK£22.485
Apr ’24UK£16.90
UK£24.22
+43.3%
17.0%UK£29.50UK£19.00UK£23.255
Mar ’24UK£17.84
UK£24.22
+35.8%
17.0%UK£29.50UK£19.00UK£23.355
Feb ’24UK£16.44
UK£24.64
+49.9%
22.5%UK£30.00UK£15.00UK£22.855
Jan ’24UK£15.26
UK£24.64
+61.5%
22.5%UK£30.00UK£15.00UK£22.055
Dec ’23UK£16.14
UK£24.64
+52.7%
22.5%UK£30.00UK£15.00UK£20.655
Nov ’23UK£15.80
UK£25.68
+62.5%
21.2%UK£30.00UK£15.00UK£19.025

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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