Howden Joinery Group Plc

BATS-CHIXE:HWDNL Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£4.5b

Howden Joinery Group Valuation

Is HWDNL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HWDNL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HWDNL (£8.21) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£9.27)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HWDNL is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HWDNL?

Key metric: As HWDNL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HWDNL. This is calculated by dividing HWDNL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HWDNL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio17.7x
EarningsUK£254.40m
Market CapUK£4.50b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HWDNL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HWDNL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average26.4x
RS1 RS Group
20.5x18.4%UK£3.5b
DPLM Diploma
46.7x14.3%UK£6.0b
GFTU Grafton Group
14.4x5.8%UK£1.9b
BNZL Bunzl
24.1x7.0%UK£11.7b
HWDNL Howden Joinery Group
17.7x6.0%UK£4.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HWDNL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.7x) compared to the peer average (26.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HWDNL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Trade Distributors Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No. of Companies10PE01020304050+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HWDNL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.7x) compared to the European Trade Distributors industry average (14.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HWDNL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HWDNL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio17.7x
Fair PE Ratio18.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HWDNL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HWDNL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£8.21
UK£9.53
+16.1%
12.5%UK£12.10UK£6.80n/a13
Nov ’25UK£8.55
UK£9.78
+14.4%
11.9%UK£12.10UK£6.80n/a14
Oct ’25UK£9.04
UK£9.78
+8.1%
11.9%UK£12.10UK£6.80n/a14
Sep ’25UK£9.53
UK£9.72
+2.0%
12.1%UK£12.10UK£6.80n/a14
Aug ’25UK£9.26
UK£9.69
+4.6%
11.8%UK£12.10UK£6.80n/a14
Jul ’25UK£8.73
UK£9.37
+7.3%
11.9%UK£12.10UK£6.80n/a14
Jun ’25UK£9.08
UK£9.07
-0.07%
13.6%UK£11.70UK£6.80n/a15
May ’25UK£8.59
UK£8.96
+4.4%
11.7%UK£10.19UK£6.80n/a15
Apr ’25UK£9.06
UK£8.88
-1.9%
11.3%UK£10.19UK£6.80n/a15
Mar ’25UK£8.47
UK£8.64
+1.9%
11.7%UK£10.00UK£6.70n/a14
Feb ’25UK£7.96
UK£8.25
+3.7%
11.0%UK£9.90UK£6.70n/a14
Jan ’25UK£8.18
UK£7.99
-2.3%
9.8%UK£9.90UK£6.70n/a15
Dec ’24UK£7.38
UK£7.99
+8.3%
9.8%UK£9.90UK£6.70n/a15
Nov ’24UK£6.44
UK£8.18
+27.0%
9.3%UK£10.00UK£6.80UK£8.5513
Oct ’24UK£7.38
UK£8.16
+10.6%
9.0%UK£10.00UK£6.80UK£9.0414
Sep ’24UK£7.35
UK£8.16
+11.1%
9.0%UK£10.00UK£6.80UK£9.5314
Aug ’24UK£7.35
UK£8.16
+11.0%
9.0%UK£10.00UK£6.80UK£9.2614
Jul ’24UK£6.43
UK£7.86
+22.2%
9.1%UK£8.95UK£6.10UK£8.7313
Jun ’24UK£6.62
UK£7.88
+19.1%
9.0%UK£8.95UK£6.10UK£9.0813
May ’24UK£6.85
UK£7.92
+15.6%
9.2%UK£8.95UK£6.10UK£8.5912
Apr ’24UK£7.00
UK£7.92
+13.2%
9.2%UK£8.95UK£6.10UK£9.0612
Mar ’24UK£7.09
UK£7.87
+11.0%
11.4%UK£8.95UK£5.90UK£8.4713
Feb ’24UK£6.96
UK£7.41
+6.5%
13.8%UK£8.95UK£5.80UK£7.9613
Jan ’24UK£5.63
UK£7.44
+32.1%
14.3%UK£9.30UK£5.80UK£8.1813
Dec ’23UK£5.97
UK£7.53
+26.1%
13.2%UK£9.30UK£5.90UK£7.3813
Nov ’23UK£5.21
UK£7.90
+51.8%
14.9%UK£10.00UK£6.20UK£6.4412

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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