Galliford Try Holdings Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of GFRDL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

GFRDL (£3.06) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (£2.71)

Is GFRDL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GFRDL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GFRDL (£3.06) is trading above our estimate of fair value (£2.71)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GFRDL is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GFRDL?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for GFRDL. This is calculated by dividing GFRDL's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is GFRDL's n/a Ratio?
n/a	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	UK£307.16m

GFRDL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.09x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	4.5x
PEG Ratio	11.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GFRDL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for GFRDL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	13.7x
COST Costain Group	8.8x	13.0%	UK£269.1m
SFR Severfield	15.3x	16.9%	UK£243.4m
KIE Kier Group	12.2x	14.7%	UK£624.5m
RNWH Renew Holdings	18.5x	2.2%	UK£903.8m
GFRDL Galliford Try Holdings	21.2x	1.8%	UK£307.2m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GFRDL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.2x) compared to the peer average (13.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GFRDL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Construction Industry?

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	3.4%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

Fetching data

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	3.4%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GFRDL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.2x) compared to the European Construction industry average (13.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GFRDL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GFRDL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	21.2x
Fair PE Ratio	12x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: GFRDL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GFRDL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	UK£3.06	UK£3.69 +20.5%	13.9%	UK£4.17	UK£2.93	n/a	4
Sep ’25	UK£2.95	UK£3.69 +25.0%	13.9%	UK£4.17	UK£2.93	n/a	4
Aug ’25	UK£3.07	UK£3.69 +20.1%	13.9%	UK£4.17	UK£2.93	n/a	4
Jul ’25	UK£2.44	UK£3.34 +37.0%	8.8%	UK£3.60	UK£2.93	n/a	3
Jun ’25	UK£2.67	UK£3.43 +28.6%	8.7%	UK£3.70	UK£2.93	n/a	4
May ’25	UK£2.45	UK£3.22 +31.4%	9.4%	UK£3.70	UK£2.93	n/a	4
Apr ’25	UK£2.39	UK£3.22 +34.6%	9.4%	UK£3.70	UK£2.93	n/a	4
Mar ’25	UK£2.47	UK£3.16 +27.8%	10.0%	UK£3.70	UK£2.93	n/a	4
Feb ’25	UK£2.43	UK£3.16 +30.2%	10.0%	UK£3.70	UK£2.93	n/a	4
Jan ’25	UK£2.25	UK£2.89 +28.2%	4.9%	UK£3.04	UK£2.70	n/a	4
Dec ’24	UK£2.24	UK£2.85 +27.3%	4.0%	UK£3.00	UK£2.70	n/a	4
Nov ’24	UK£2.28	UK£2.85 +25.1%	4.0%	UK£3.00	UK£2.70	n/a	4
Oct ’24	UK£2.45	UK£2.85 +16.7%	4.0%	UK£3.00	UK£2.70	UK£3.06	4
Sep ’24	UK£1.99	UK£2.74 +37.6%	22.5%	UK£4.00	UK£2.22	UK£2.95	6
Aug ’24	UK£2.01	UK£2.74 +36.2%	22.5%	UK£4.00	UK£2.22	UK£3.07	6
Jul ’24	UK£2.01	UK£2.49 +24.0%	10.9%	UK£2.91	UK£2.22	UK£2.44	5
Jun ’24	UK£1.80	UK£2.49 +38.1%	10.9%	UK£2.91	UK£2.22	UK£2.67	5
May ’24	UK£1.79	UK£2.49 +38.9%	10.9%	UK£2.91	UK£2.22	UK£2.45	5
Apr ’24	UK£1.73	UK£2.49 +43.7%	10.9%	UK£2.91	UK£2.22	UK£2.39	5
Mar ’24	UK£1.76	UK£2.40 +36.5%	15.9%	UK£2.91	UK£1.80	UK£2.47	5
Feb ’24	UK£1.74	UK£2.40 +37.7%	15.9%	UK£2.91	UK£1.80	UK£2.43	5
Jan ’24	UK£1.58	UK£2.42 +53.6%	14.5%	UK£2.91	UK£1.90	UK£2.25	5
Dec ’23	UK£1.58	UK£2.42 +53.3%	14.5%	UK£2.91	UK£1.90	UK£2.24	5
Nov ’23	UK£1.65	UK£2.42 +46.6%	14.5%	UK£2.91	UK£1.90	UK£2.28	5
Oct ’23	UK£1.47	UK£2.42 +65.0%	14.5%	UK£2.91	UK£1.90	UK£2.45	5

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.