Stock Analysis

Judges Scientific's (LON:JDG) five-year earnings growth trails the 36% YoY shareholder returns

AIM:JDG
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We think all investors should try to buy and hold high quality multi-year winners. And highest quality companies can see their share prices grow by huge amounts. Don't believe it? Then look at the Judges Scientific plc (LON:JDG) share price. It's 319% higher than it was five years ago. If that doesn't get you thinking about long term investing, we don't know what will. It's also good to see the share price up 13% over the last quarter.

The past week has proven to be lucrative for Judges Scientific investors, so let's see if fundamentals drove the company's five-year performance.

Check out our latest analysis for Judges Scientific

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Over half a decade, Judges Scientific managed to grow its earnings per share at 6.1% a year. This EPS growth is lower than the 33% average annual increase in the share price. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. And that's hardly shocking given the track record of growth. This optimism is visible in its fairly high P/E ratio of 77.61.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-per-share-growth
AIM:JDG Earnings Per Share Growth December 16th 2023

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Judges Scientific's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Judges Scientific the TSR over the last 5 years was 358%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Judges Scientific shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 19% over one year. That's including the dividend. Having said that, the five-year TSR of 36% a year, is even better. Potential buyers might understandably feel they've missed the opportunity, but it's always possible business is still firing on all cylinders. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with Judges Scientific , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Judges Scientific is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on British exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Judges Scientific is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.