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Virgin Money UK Valuation

Is VMUK undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of VMUK when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: VMUK (£2.18) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£5.1)

Significantly Below Fair Value: VMUK is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for VMUK?

Key metric: As VMUK is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for VMUK. This is calculated by dividing VMUK's market cap by their current earnings.
What is VMUK's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio11.3x
EarningsUK£250.00m
Market CapUK£2.82b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does VMUK's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for VMUK vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average4.4x
HSBK Halyk Bank of Kazakhstan
3.3xn/aUS$5.0b
TCS TCS Group Holding
6.5xn/aUS$5.1b
TBCG TBC Bank Group
4.9x17.4%UK£1.7b
BGEO Bank of Georgia Group
3.1x-4.1%UK£2.0b
VMUK Virgin Money UK
11.3x9.2%UK£2.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: VMUK is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.3x) compared to the peer average (4.2x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does VMUK's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Banks Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
VMUK 11.3xIndustry Avg. 7.6xNo. of Companies46PE0612182430+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: VMUK is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.3x) compared to the European Banks industry average (7.5x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is VMUK's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

VMUK PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio11.3x
Fair PE Ratio6.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: VMUK is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.4x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst VMUK forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentn/a
UK£2.12
0%
4.6%UK£2.20UK£1.99n/a8
Dec ’25n/a
UK£2.12
0%
4.6%UK£2.20UK£1.99n/a8
Nov ’25n/a
UK£2.12
0%
4.6%UK£2.20UK£1.99n/a8
Oct ’25UK£2.18
UK£2.12
-2.5%
4.6%UK£2.20UK£1.99n/a8
Sep ’25UK£2.16
UK£2.14
-0.7%
4.2%UK£2.20UK£1.99n/a11
Aug ’25UK£2.15
UK£2.14
-0.4%
4.2%UK£2.20UK£1.99n/a11
Jul ’25UK£2.14
UK£2.14
+0.3%
4.2%UK£2.20UK£1.99n/a11
Jun ’25UK£2.13
UK£2.14
+0.7%
4.2%UK£2.20UK£1.99n/a11
May ’25UK£2.14
UK£2.15
+0.3%
6.3%UK£2.50UK£1.95n/a15
Apr ’25UK£2.14
UK£2.10
-1.7%
5.4%UK£2.20UK£1.90n/a16
Mar ’25UK£1.59
UK£1.97
+24.0%
12.0%UK£2.50UK£1.50n/a20
Feb ’25UK£1.51
UK£1.96
+30.1%
11.5%UK£2.45UK£1.50n/a20
Jan ’25UK£1.64
UK£1.97
+19.6%
11.2%UK£2.45UK£1.55n/a20
Dec ’24UK£1.46
UK£2.00
+37.6%
14.8%UK£2.80UK£1.55n/a20
Nov ’24UK£1.52
UK£2.20
+44.5%
17.6%UK£3.05UK£1.55n/a19
Oct ’24UK£1.68
UK£2.17
+28.9%
16.8%UK£3.05UK£1.55UK£2.1820
Sep ’24UK£1.63
UK£2.16
+32.4%
16.0%UK£3.05UK£1.55UK£2.1620
Aug ’24UK£1.76
UK£2.15
+22.1%
16.6%UK£3.05UK£1.50UK£2.1520
Jul ’24UK£1.50
UK£2.15
+43.7%
16.2%UK£3.05UK£1.50UK£2.1420
Jun ’24UK£1.51
UK£2.15
+42.1%
15.3%UK£3.05UK£1.65UK£2.1320
May ’24UK£1.56
UK£2.21
+42.0%
15.9%UK£3.20UK£1.65UK£2.1420
Apr ’24UK£1.46
UK£2.25
+54.1%
15.3%UK£3.20UK£1.65UK£2.1420
Mar ’24UK£1.78
UK£2.25
+26.2%
15.0%UK£3.20UK£1.65UK£1.5921
Feb ’24UK£1.90
UK£2.24
+17.7%
16.3%UK£3.20UK£1.65UK£1.5121
Jan ’24UK£1.82
UK£2.24
+22.7%
18.3%UK£3.20UK£1.50UK£1.6421
Dec ’23UK£1.72
UK£2.21
+28.7%
19.5%UK£3.20UK£1.50UK£1.4621

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.


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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/10/01 07:39
End of Day Share Price 2024/10/01 00:00
Earnings2024/03/31
Annual Earnings2023/09/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Virgin Money UK PLC is covered by 28 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
T.S. LimBell Potter
Adam BarrassBerenberg
Peter RichardsonBerenberg