Spar Nord Bank Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 0JH4 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

0JH4 (DKK136) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (DKK314.04)

Is 0JH4 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 0JH4 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 0JH4 (DKK136) is trading below our estimate of fair value (DKK314.04)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 0JH4 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 0JH4?

Key metric: As 0JH4 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 0JH4. This is calculated by dividing 0JH4's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 0JH4's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	6.9x
Earnings	DKK 2.28b
Market Cap	DKK 15.66b

0JH4 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	-0.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 0JH4's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 0JH4 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	4.5x
TBCG TBC Bank Group	4.9x	16.8%	UK£1.8b
BGEO Bank of Georgia Group	3.1x	-3.2%	UK£2.1b
HSBK Halyk Bank of Kazakhstan	3.3x	n/a	US$5.3b
TCS TCS Group Holding	6.5x	n/a	US$5.1b
0JH4 Spar Nord Bank	6.9x	-11.4%	DKK 15.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 0JH4 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.9x) compared to the peer average (4.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 0JH4's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Banks Industry?

2 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

2 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 0JH4 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.9x) compared to the European Banks industry average (7.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 0JH4's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

0JH4 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	6.9x
Fair PE Ratio	4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 0JH4 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 0JH4 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	DKK 136.00	DKK 147.50 +8.5%	5.1%	DKK 155.00	DKK 140.00	n/a	2
Jul ’24	DKK 106.70	DKK 122.50 +14.8%	14.3%	DKK 140.00	DKK 105.00	DKK 137.00	2
Jun ’24	DKK 104.00	DKK 120.00 +15.4%	12.5%	DKK 135.00	DKK 105.00	DKK 127.20	2
May ’24	DKK 109.70	DKK 125.00 +13.9%	16.0%	DKK 145.00	DKK 105.00	DKK 124.20	2
Apr ’24	DKK 108.20	DKK 120.67 +11.5%	14.5%	DKK 145.00	DKK 105.00	DKK 115.59	3
Mar ’24	DKK 129.72	DKK 120.67 -7.0%	14.5%	DKK 145.00	DKK 105.00	DKK 122.24	3
Feb ’24	DKK 108.58	DKK 112.50 +3.6%	6.7%	DKK 120.00	DKK 105.00	DKK 116.99	2
Jan ’24	DKK 106.40	DKK 112.50 +5.7%	6.7%	DKK 120.00	DKK 105.00	DKK 106.60	2
Dec ’23	DKK 104.78	DKK 112.50 +7.4%	6.7%	DKK 120.00	DKK 105.00	DKK 103.99	2
Nov ’23	DKK 89.30	DKK 107.50 +20.4%	2.3%	DKK 110.00	DKK 105.00	DKK 105.20	2

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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