Earnings Miss: Aeroports de Paris SA Missed EPS By 48% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Shareholders might have noticed that Aeroports de Paris SA (EPA:ADP) filed its half-yearly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.3% to €107 in the past week. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at €0.98, some 48% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at €3.2b. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Aeroports de Paris' 14 analysts is for revenues of €6.58b in 2025. This reflects a credible 2.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 473% to €5.40. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €6.67b and earnings per share (EPS) of €5.59 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

Check out our latest analysis for Aeroports de Paris

The consensus price target held steady at €125, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Aeroports de Paris at €150 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €109. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Aeroports de Paris' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 5.0% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 21% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 3.6% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Aeroports de Paris' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Aeroports de Paris. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €125, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Aeroports de Paris going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 4 warning signs for Aeroports de Paris (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.