New Risk • Nov 13
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 51% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 51% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Large one-off items impacting financial results. Market cap is less than US$100m (€26.3m market cap, or US$27.9m). Price Target Changed • Jul 26
Price target decreased by 17% to €35.00 Down from €42.30, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 15% above last closing price of €30.40. The company posted a net loss per share of €0.013 last year. Upcoming Dividend • May 22
Upcoming dividend of €0.21 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 29 May 2024. Payment date: 31 May 2024. The company is not currently making a profit and is not cash flow positive. Trailing yield: 0.7%. Lower than top quartile of French dividend payers (5.2%). In line with average of industry peers (0.6%). Reported Earnings • May 05
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: €0.05 loss per share (down from €0.20 profit in FY 2022). Revenue: €16.6m (down 16% from FY 2022). Net loss: €11.0k (down 106% from profit in FY 2022). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 9.2% growth forecast for the Software industry in France. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 59 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. New Risk • Nov 16
New minor risk - Financial data availability The company's latest financial reports are more than 6 months old. Last reported fiscal period ended December 2022. This is considered a minor risk. If the company has not reported its earnings on time, it may have been delayed due to audit problems or it may be finding it difficult to reconcile its accounts. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Latest financial reports are more than 6 months old (reported December 2022 fiscal period end). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (0.9% net profit margin). Market cap is less than US$100m (€19.1m market cap, or US$20.7m). Major Estimate Revision • Oct 01
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 87% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 EPS estimate fell from €0.39 to €0.05. Revenue forecast unchanged from €20.0m at last update. Net income forecast to shrink 100% next year vs 22% growth forecast for Software industry in France . Consensus price target broadly unchanged at €42.30. Share price was steady at €26.60 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 26
Consensus revenue estimates fall by 15% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2023 has deteriorated. 2023 revenue forecast decreased from €21.3m to €18.0m. EPS estimate fell from €0.60 to €0.20 per share. Net income forecast to shrink 78% next year vs 10% decline forecast for Software industry in France. Consensus price target of €42.80 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at €28.80 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Nov 16
Price target decreased to €42.80 Down from €54.80, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 57% above last closing price of €27.20. Stock is down 45% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €0.58 for next year compared to €1.08 last year. Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 6 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. 1 independent director (5 non-independent directors). was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in . The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Reported Earnings • Nov 03
First half 2022 earnings released: EPS: €0.21 (vs €0.47 in 1H 2021) First half 2022 results: EPS: €0.21 (down from €0.47 in 1H 2021). Revenue: €9.54m (up 9.7% from 1H 2021). Net income: €176.0k (down 56% from 1H 2021). Profit margin: 1.8% (down from 4.7% in 1H 2021). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 12% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 9.5% growth forecast for the Software industry in France. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 18% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 2% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Buying Opportunity • Jul 30
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 15%. The fair value is estimated to be €47.17, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 17% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 10%. Price Target Changed • Apr 27
Price target increased to €42.90 Up from €33.10, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of €43.10. Stock is up 11% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €1.01 for next year compared to €1.06 last year. Board Change • Apr 27
Less than half of directors are independent No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 6 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. 1 independent director (5 non-independent directors). was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in . The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 07
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 18% share price decline to €31.90, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 24x. Average forward P/E is 31x in the Software industry in France. Total returns to shareholders of 54% over the past three years. Buying Opportunity • Jan 30
Now 22% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 5.3%. The fair value is estimated to be €58.04, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 18% per annum over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 3.2% per annum over the last 3 years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Oct 15
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 20% share price gain to €48.10, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 37x. Average forward P/E is 36x in the Software industry in France. Total returns to shareholders of 95% over the past three years. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 24
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2021 has been updated. 2021 EPS estimate fell from €1.52 to €1.29. Revenue forecast unchanged from €16.1m at last update. Net income forecast to grow 21% next year vs 34% growth forecast for Software industry in France. Consensus price target of €33.10 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 2.8% to €38.90 over the past week. Is New 90 Day High Low • Feb 10
New 90-day high: €37.20 The company is up 50% from its price of €24.80 on 11 November 2020. The French market is up 6.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Software industry, which is up 27% over the same period. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 28
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 24% share price gain to €36.00, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 48.9x, up from the previous P/E ratio of 39.4x. This compares to an average P/E of 60x in the Software industry in France. Total returns to shareholders over the past three years are 107%. Price Target Changed • Jan 23
Price target raised to €30.70 Up from €26.60, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. The new target price is 11% below the current share price of €34.60. As of last close, the stock is up 8.1% over the past year. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 22
New 90-day high: €34.60 The company is up 37% from its price of €25.20 on 23 October 2020. The French market is up 13% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Software industry, which is up 12% over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 10
New 90-day high: €28.80 The company is up 24% from its price of €23.20 on 11 September 2020. The French market is up 11% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Software industry, which is flat over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Nov 23
New 90-day high: €26.20 The company is up 5.0% from its price of €25.00 on 25 August 2020. The French market is up 11% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. However, it outperformed the Software industry, which is up 2.0% over the same period. Announcement • Sep 24
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