Earnings Update: Soitec SA (EPA:SOI) Just Reported And Analysts Are Trimming Their Forecasts

There's been a major selloff in Soitec SA (EPA:SOI) shares in the week since it released its half-yearly report, with the stock down 38% to €23.30. Revenues were in line with expectations, at €231m, while statutory losses ballooned to €1.87 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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After the latest results, the consensus from Soitec's 16 analysts is for revenues of €621.9m in 2026, which would reflect a stressful 21% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Earnings are expected to tip over into lossmaking territory, with the analysts forecasting statutory losses of -€1.73 per share in 2026. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €656.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.42 in 2026. The analysts have made an abrupt about-face on Soitec, administering a minor downgrade to to revenue forecasts and slashing the earnings outlook from a profit to loss.

See our latest analysis for Soitec

The average price target fell 16% to €40.71, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for Soitec's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Soitec analyst has a price target of €80.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €22.00. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 37% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 6.9% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 8.5% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Soitec's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts are expecting Soitec to become unprofitable next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Soitec's future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Soitec going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Soitec (at least 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.