Estimating The Fair Value Of Eurasia Fonciere Investissements Société Anonyme (EPA:EFI)

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Eurasia Fonciere Investissements Société Anonyme (EPA:EFI) as an investment opportunity by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Eurasia Fonciere Investissements Société Anonyme

Is Eurasia Fonciere Investissements Société Anonyme fairly valued?

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
Levered FCF (€, Millions)	€345.2k	€589.8k	€883.0k	€1.19m	€1.48m	€1.74m	€1.95m	€2.12m	€2.25m	€2.35m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ 101.1%	Est @ 70.87%	Est @ 49.71%	Est @ 34.9%	Est @ 24.53%	Est @ 17.27%	Est @ 12.19%	Est @ 8.64%	Est @ 6.15%	Est @ 4.41%
Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 6.7%	€0.3	€0.5	€0.7	€0.9	€1.1	€1.2	€1.2	€1.3	€1.3	€1.2

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €9.0m

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 0.3%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.7%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₁ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €2.4m× (1 + 0.3%) ÷ (6.7%– 0.3%) = €37m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= €37m÷ ( 1 + 6.7%)¹⁰= €20m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is €29m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of €0.5, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

The assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Eurasia Fonciere Investissements Société Anonyme as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.316. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Looking Ahead:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Eurasia Fonciere Investissements Société Anonyme, there are three further items you should consider:

1. Risks: We feel that you should assess the 3 warning signs for Eurasia Fonciere Investissements Société Anonyme (2 don't sit too well with us!) we've flagged before making an investment in the company.
2. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
3. Other Top Analyst Picks: Interested to see what the analysts are thinking? Take a look at our interactive list of analysts' top stock picks to find out what they feel might have an attractive future outlook!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the ENXTPA every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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