Stock Analysis

Further weakness as Covivio (EPA:COV) drops 3.9% this week, taking five-year losses to 33%

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ENXTPA:COV
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For many, the main point of investing is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But every investor is virtually certain to have both over-performing and under-performing stocks. So we wouldn't blame long term Covivio (EPA:COV) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 51% over a half decade. And some of the more recent buyers are probably worried, too, with the stock falling 33% in the last year. Unfortunately the share price momentum is still quite negative, with prices down 8.4% in thirty days.

Given the past week has been tough on shareholders, let's investigate the fundamentals and see what we can learn.

View our latest analysis for Covivio

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

In the last half decade Covivio saw its share price fall as its EPS declined below zero. The recent extraordinary items contributed to this situation. Since the company has fallen to a loss making position, it's hard to compare the change in EPS with the share price change. But we would generally expect a lower price, given the situation.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
ENXTPA:COV Earnings Per Share Growth February 4th 2024

Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Covivio the TSR over the last 5 years was -33%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Covivio shareholders are down 28% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 4.8%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 6% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Even so, be aware that Covivio is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those makes us a bit uncomfortable...

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Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on French exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Covivio is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.