Groupe Capelli's (EPA:CAPLI) earnings trajectory could turn positive as the stock hikes 10% this past week

By
Simply Wall St
Published
January 08, 2022
ENXTPA:ALCAP
Source: Shutterstock

It's nice to see the Groupe Capelli (EPA:CAPLI) share price up 10% in a week. But that cannot eclipse the less-than-impressive returns over the last three years. In fact, the share price is down 30% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return.

On a more encouraging note the company has added €5.0m to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the three-year loss for shareholders.

Check out our latest analysis for Groupe Capelli

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Groupe Capelli saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 14% per year, over the last three years. In comparison the 11% compound annual share price decline isn't as bad as the EPS drop-off. So the market may not be too worried about the EPS figure, at the moment -- or it may have previously priced some of the drop in.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-per-share-growth
ENXTPA:CAPLI Earnings Per Share Growth January 8th 2022

We know that Groupe Capelli has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? This free report showing analyst revenue forecasts should help you figure out if the EPS growth can be sustained.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Groupe Capelli, it has a TSR of -25% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Investors in Groupe Capelli had a tough year, with a total loss of 18% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 27%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 0.4%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Even so, be aware that Groupe Capelli is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those can't be ignored...

We will like Groupe Capelli better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on FR exchanges.

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