Valneva Valuation

Is VLA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of VLA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: VLA (€3.62) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€8.64)

Significantly Below Fair Value: VLA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for VLA?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

VLA key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA-7.7x
PEG Ration/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does VLA's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for VLA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average24.3x
NANO Nanobiotix
40.3x24.5%€271.8m
ALSEN Sensorion
37.2x30.2%€207.2m
IVA Inventiva
8.4x45.6%€184.9m
ADOC Adocia
11.4x74.0%€123.3m
VLA Valneva
3.3x20.0%€502.3m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: VLA is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.3x) compared to the peer average (24.9x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does VLA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the FR Biotechs Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a32.2%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPS048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a32.2%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: VLA is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.3x) compared to the French Biotechs industry average (6.8x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is VLA's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

VLA PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio3.2x
Fair PS Ratio2x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: VLA is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (2x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst VLA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€3.59
€8.95
+149.2%
28.9%€12.00€3.80n/a6
Mar ’25€3.16
€9.27
+193.7%
28.7%€12.40€4.30n/a6
Feb ’25€3.62
€9.17
+152.9%
24.6%€12.00€4.80n/a6
Jan ’25€4.72
€9.37
+98.4%
20.1%€12.00€6.00n/a6
Dec ’24€5.19
€10.03
+93.2%
22.9%€13.00€6.00n/a6
Nov ’24€5.52
€9.73
+76.3%
23.4%€13.00€6.00n/a6
Oct ’24€5.54
€9.73
+75.8%
23.4%€13.00€6.00n/a6
Sep ’24€6.44
€9.73
+51.2%
23.4%€13.00€6.00n/a6
Aug ’24€6.66
€10.30
+54.7%
24.8%€13.00€6.00n/a6
Jul ’24€6.68
€10.30
+54.3%
24.8%€13.00€6.00n/a6
Jun ’24€5.33
€8.98
+68.5%
23.2%€13.00€6.00n/a6
May ’24€4.39
€9.23
+110.1%
22.1%€13.00€6.00n/a6
Apr ’24€4.83
€9.30
+92.5%
23.9%€13.00€6.00n/a5
Mar ’24€5.47
€10.28
+88.0%
17.3%€13.00€8.00€3.166
Feb ’24€6.25
€11.77
+88.3%
23.9%€17.00€8.00€3.626
Jan ’24€6.22
€11.45
+84.0%
26.5%€17.00€8.00€4.726
Dec ’23€6.77
€11.45
+69.2%
26.5%€17.00€8.00€5.196
Nov ’23€7.09
€11.67
+64.6%
24.6%€17.00€8.00€5.526
Oct ’23€5.22
€12.17
+133.1%
25.2%€17.00€8.00€5.546
Sep ’23€8.32
€15.68
+88.4%
36.2%€27.50€11.10€6.446
Aug ’23€9.71
€15.85
+63.3%
35.2%€27.50€11.10€6.666
Jul ’23€10.02
€17.80
+77.7%
35.7%€27.50€10.40€6.685
Jun ’23€11.30
€20.08
+77.7%
25.6%€27.50€14.40€5.334
May ’23€12.37
€21.06
+70.3%
23.8%€27.50€14.40€4.395
Apr ’23€16.23
€21.06
+29.8%
23.8%€27.50€14.40€4.835
Mar ’23€15.37
€21.06
+37.0%
23.8%€27.50€14.40€5.475

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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