Valneva SE

ENXTPA:VLA Stock Report

Market Cap: €302.7m

Valneva Valuation

Is VLA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of VLA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: VLA (€1.85) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€133.72)

Significantly Below Fair Value: VLA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for VLA?

Key metric: As VLA is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for VLA. This is calculated by dividing VLA's market cap by their current revenue.
What is VLA's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio1.9x
Sales€158.54m
Market Cap€302.66m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does VLA's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for VLA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average10.5x
ALERS Eurobio Scientific Société anonyme
1.8x3.9%€257.6m
ALCLS Cellectis
5.7x29.2%€193.2m
GNFT Genfit
2.4x20.1%€195.0m
ADOC Adocia
32.3x70.2%€116.0m
VLA Valneva
1.9x24.6%€299.6m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: VLA is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.9x) compared to the peer average (10.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does VLA's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the FR Biotechs Industry?

10 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.3.4x31.4%
VLA Valneva
 1.9x24.6%US$315.87m
ALERS Eurobio Scientific Société anonyme
1.8x3.9%US$271.64m
ALNOV Novacyt
1.8xn/aUS$42.92m
VLA 1.9xIndustry Avg. 3.4xNo. of Companies10PS0816243240+
10 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.3.4x4.5%
VLA Valneva
 1.9x4.6%US$315.87m
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: VLA is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.9x) compared to the French Biotechs industry average (3.4x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is VLA's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

VLA PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio1.9x
Fair PS Ratio2.3x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: VLA is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst VLA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€1.85
€6.83
+269.9%
35.4%€11.00€2.85n/a6
Nov ’25€2.65
€7.37
+177.8%
31.0%€11.00€3.70n/a6
Oct ’25€2.60
€7.07
+171.8%
25.1%€9.00€3.90n/a6
Sep ’25€3.29
€8.63
+162.4%
26.1%€11.00€3.90n/a6
Aug ’25€3.25
€8.63
+165.6%
26.1%€11.00€3.90n/a6
Jul ’25€3.25
€8.97
+175.6%
28.5%€12.00€3.90n/a6
Jun ’25€4.11
€8.97
+118.0%
28.5%€12.00€3.90n/a6
May ’25€3.38
€8.95
+164.8%
28.9%€12.00€3.80n/a6
Apr ’25€3.64
€8.95
+146.1%
28.9%€12.00€3.80n/a6
Mar ’25€3.16
€9.27
+193.7%
28.7%€12.40€4.30n/a6
Feb ’25€3.62
€9.17
+152.9%
24.6%€12.00€4.80n/a6
Jan ’25€4.72
€9.37
+98.4%
20.1%€12.00€6.00n/a6
Dec ’24€5.19
€10.03
+93.2%
22.9%€13.00€6.00n/a6
Nov ’24€5.52
€9.73
+76.3%
23.4%€13.00€6.00€2.656
Oct ’24€5.54
€9.73
+75.8%
23.4%€13.00€6.00€2.606
Sep ’24€6.44
€9.73
+51.2%
23.4%€13.00€6.00€3.296
Aug ’24€6.66
€10.30
+54.7%
24.8%€13.00€6.00€3.256
Jul ’24€6.68
€10.30
+54.3%
24.8%€13.00€6.00€3.256
Jun ’24€5.33
€8.98
+68.5%
23.2%€13.00€6.00€4.116
May ’24€4.39
€9.23
+110.1%
22.1%€13.00€6.00€3.386
Apr ’24€4.83
€9.30
+92.5%
23.9%€13.00€6.00€3.645
Mar ’24€5.47
€10.28
+88.0%
17.3%€13.00€8.00€3.166
Feb ’24€6.25
€11.77
+88.3%
23.9%€17.00€8.00€3.626
Jan ’24€6.22
€11.45
+84.0%
26.5%€17.00€8.00€4.726
Dec ’23€6.77
€11.45
+69.2%
26.5%€17.00€8.00€5.196
Nov ’23€7.09
€11.67
+64.6%
24.6%€17.00€8.00€5.526

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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