Price Target Changed • Jul 06
Price target decreased by 20% to €10.70 Down from €13.33, the current price target is an average from 4 analysts. New target price is 153% above last closing price of €4.23. Stock is up 15% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €0.25 next year compared to a net loss per share of €0.93 last year. New Risk • Jul 06
New major risk - Financial position The company has less than a year of cash runway based on its current free cash flow trend. Free cash flow: -€6.8m This is considered a major risk. With less than a year's worth of cash, the company will need to raise capital or take on debt unless its cash flows improve. This would dilute existing shareholders or increase balance sheet risk. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Less than 1 year of cash runway based on free cash flow trend (-€6.8m free cash flow). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (11% average weekly change). Minor Risks Revenue is less than US$5m (€3.8m revenue, or US$4.4m). Market cap is less than US$100m (€87.1m market cap, or US$99.5m). Announcement • Jun 09
Adocia Presents Full Phase 3 Results For BioChaperone Lispro In Type 2 Diabetes Presented at ADA 86th Scientific Sessions Adocia announced that the full results of the Phase 3 clinical study (Study THDB0206L02, NCT05834868) conducted on people with type 2 diabetes in China with BioChaperone Lispro were presented at the American Diabetes Association (ADA) 86th Scientific Session, completing the positive topline results of this clinical trial announced in July 2025. Positive topline results, released in July 2025, included non inferior HbA1c reduction for the whole population and a similar safety profile compared to the standard of care, Humalog. Clinically relevant benefits over Humalog include: Superior long term glycemic control in people using Metformin or with HbA1c below 8.5%, Superior glucose control throughout the day and after each meal for the whole population. For more detail, the poster is accessible on Adocia’s website. BioChaperone Lispro was licensed to Tonghua Dongbao in 2018, as part of a Licensing Agreement covering China and other Asian countries. BioChaperone Lispro is an Ultra-Rapid Insulin, belonging to the latest generation of prandial insulins. It combines Adocia's proprietary BioChaperone technology with insulin lispro, the active ingredient in the standard of care, Humalog. This innovative formulation acts significantly faster than earlier insulin generations, effectively reducing post-meal hyperglycemia, which is a key contributor to long-term complications such as retinopathy, diabetic foot ulcers, or kidney failure. Additionally, its rapid elimination minimizes the risk of hypoglycemia, often caused when insulin level remains high after post-meal glucose levels have normalized. The faster action profile of BioChaperone Lispro associated to an excellent local tolerance enhances its compatibility with modern diabetes management systems, particularly insulin pump systems, and provides better integration into advanced treatment algorithms. Beyond its clinical advantages, the quick onset of BioChaperone Lispro improves quality of life by offering greater flexibility in dose timing. Patients can administer insulin at mealtime, or even right-after-mealtime, allowing for more accurate dosing based on known meal timing and content. This reduces the risks of overdosing or underdosing, which can lead to hypo- or hyperglycemia and their associated complications. The simplified dosing process eases the psychological burden on patients and caregivers, significantly alleviating the stress associated with diabetes management. In 2022, the partner Tonghua Dongbao initiated two Phase 3 studies with the ultra-rapid insulin BioChaperone Lispro involving approximately 1,500 people with type 1 or type 2 diabetes in China. The positive results of these studies have been announced in July 2025 and October 2025. The contract with Tonghua Dongbao includes a milestone payment of USD 20 million, which would be triggered upon obtaining marketing authorization in China, and subsequent double-digit royalties on sales to Adocia. The marketing authorization filing is in preparation and is under Tonghua Dongbao’s responsibility. Announcement • Jun 05
Adocia Announces Virtual Kol Event to Review Phase 3 Results of Ultra-Rapid Insulin Biochaperone Lispro Adocia announced that it will host a virtual Key Opinion Leader (KOL) event on Tuesday June 16, 2026 at 10:00 AM EST /4:00 PM CEST. Tim Heise, MD (Profil, Neuss, Germany), will join company management, Olivier Soula, CEO and co-founder of Adocia and You-Ping Chan, Head of R&D, to review the results of the Phase 3 trial conducted in China on BioChaperone Lispro (“BC Lispro”) for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. The event will cover the following topics: Introduction to Adocia’s proprietary BioChaperone technology platform, by You-Ping Chan; Current mealtime insulin treatment paradigm for diabetes and limitations by Tim Heise; Ultra-Rapid insulin BC Lispro Phase 3 data on type 2 diabetes by Tim Heise MD; Next steps and potential value creation by Olivier Soula. A live question and answer session will follow the presentation. The webcast will be conducted in English. A replay of the webcast and presentation materials will be made available on Adocia’s website following the event. BioChaperone Lispro was licensed to Tonghua Dongbaoin 2018, as part of a Licensing Agreement covering China and other Asian countries. BioChaperone Lispro is an Ultra-Rapid Insulin, belonging to the latest generation of prandial insulins. It combines Adocia's proprietary BioChaperone technology with insulin lispro, the active ingredient in the standard of care, Humalog (Eli Lilly). This innovative formulation acts significantly faster than earlier insulin generations, effectively reducing post-meal hyperglycemia, which is a key contributor to long-term complications such as retinopathy, diabetic foot ulcers, or kidney failure. Additionally, its rapid elimination minimizes the risk of hypoglycemia, often caused when insulin level remains high after post-meal glucose levels have normalized. The faster action profile of BioChaperone Lispro associated to an excellent local tolerance enhances its compatibility with modern diabetes management systems, particularly insulin pump systems, and provides better integration into advanced treatment algorithms. Beyond its clinical advantages, the quick onset of BioChaperone Lispro improves quality of life by offering greater flexibility in dose timing. Patients can administer insulin at mealtime, or even right-after-mealtime, allowing for more accurate dosing based on known meal timing and content. This reduces the risks of overdosing or underdosing, which can lead to hypo- or hyperglycemia and their associated complications. The simplified dosing process eases the psychological burden on patients and caregivers, significantly alleviating the stress associated with diabetes management. New Risk • Jun 04
New minor risk - Market cap size The company's market capitalization is less than US$100m. Market cap: €80.5m (US$93.3m) This is considered a minor risk. Companies with a small market capitalization are most likely businesses that have not yet released a product to market or are simply a very small company without a wide reach. Either way, risk is elevated with these companies because there is a chance the product may not come to fruition or the company's addressable market or demand may not be as large as expected. In addition, if the company's size is the main factor, it is less likely to have many investors and analysts following it and scrutinizing its performance and outlook. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (11% average weekly change). Negative equity (-€617k). Minor Risks Revenue is less than US$5m (€3.8m revenue, or US$4.5m). Market cap is less than US$100m (€80.5m market cap, or US$93.3m). Breakeven Date Change • May 18
Forecast to breakeven in 2026 The 3 analysts covering Adocia expect the company to break even for the first time. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a profit of €3.98m in 2026. Earnings growth of 55% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. New Risk • May 13
New minor risk - Profitability The company is currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years. Trailing 12-month net loss: €17m Forecast net loss in 3 years: €6.4m This is considered a minor risk. Companies that are not profitable are more likely to be burning through cash and less likely to be well established. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. Without profits, the company is under pressure to grow significantly while potentially having to reduce costs and possibly needing to take on debt or raise capital to remain afloat. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (11% average weekly change). Negative equity (-€617k). Minor Risks Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 3 years (€6.4m net loss in 3 years). Revenue is less than US$5m (€3.8m revenue, or US$4.5m). Reported Earnings • Apr 24
Full year 2025 earnings released Full year 2025 results: Revenue: €3.85m (down 68% from FY 2024). Net loss: €16.6m (loss widened 78% from FY 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 25% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 53% growth forecast for the Biotechs industry in France. Breakeven Date Change • Apr 24
Forecast to breakeven in 2026 The 2 analysts covering Adocia expect the company to break even for the first time. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a profit of €4.21m in 2026. Earnings growth of 43% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. New Risk • Apr 07
New minor risk - Market cap size The company's market capitalization is less than US$100m. Market cap: €85.5m (US$99.2m) This is considered a minor risk. Companies with a small market capitalization are most likely businesses that have not yet released a product to market or are simply a very small company without a wide reach. Either way, risk is elevated with these companies because there is a chance the product may not come to fruition or the company's addressable market or demand may not be as large as expected. In addition, if the company's size is the main factor, it is less likely to have many investors and analysts following it and scrutinizing its performance and outlook. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Negative equity (-€617k). Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (7.7% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$100m (€85.5m market cap, or US$99.2m). Announcement • Feb 25
Adocia SA Announces Board Changes Adocia SA announced that after 20 years as Chairman of Adocia, and as announced during the shareholders’ meeting of Adocia conducted on June 11th 2025, Gérard Soula, co-founder of the Company, is stepping down from his positions as Chairman of the Board of Directors and Board member, in consultation with the Board of Directors, in accordance with the statutory age limit. The termination of Gérard Soula’s functions will be effective as of February 23, 2026. The Board also decided that Stéphane Boissel, a director of Adocia since 2021, will succeed Gérard Soula as Chairman of the Board of Directors of Adocia. Stéphane Boissel is an experienced executive in the biotechnology sector, currently serving as President and CEO of SparingVision, a Company specializing in genomic medicine for hereditary eye diseases. After 10 years of experience in consulting and investment banking in France and internationally, he has spent the past 25 years serving as an executive leader and board member in the biotechnology sector. He previously held chief executive, strategic, and financial leadership positions at several international biotech companies, including Innate Pharma, Transgene, TxCell, and Sangamo Therapeutics in San Francisco, and currently serves as an independent member of the Board of Directors of EG427. As a replacement of the office held by Gérard Soula, the Board of Directors co-opted Jacky Vonderscher as a director, considered as an independent director. His co-optation as director will be submitted for shareholders’ ratification at the next Annual shareholders’ meeting of Adocia. Jacky Vonderscher is an experienced pharma and biotech leader. He is the CEO of ENYO Pharma SA, a Company specializing in developing therapeutics for diseases with impaired kidney function. His extensive 40 years’ experience in pharma development at Novartis and Roche, and more recently as director and leader in different biotech companies, will be a valuable contribution for the development of Adocia. New Risk • Jan 19
New major risk - Financial position The company has less than a year of cash runway based on its current free cash flow trend. Free cash flow: -€15m This is considered a major risk. With less than a year's worth of cash, the company will need to raise capital or take on debt unless its cash flows improve. This would dilute existing shareholders or increase balance sheet risk. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Less than 1 year of cash runway based on free cash flow trend (-€15m free cash flow). Negative equity (-€617k). Minor Risk Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (25% increase in shares outstanding). Breakeven Date Change • Jan 15
Forecast to breakeven in 2026 The 2 analysts covering Adocia expect the company to break even for the first time. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a profit of €14.0m in 2026. Average annual earnings growth of 43% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Announcement • Dec 20
Adocia SA, Annual General Meeting, Jun 03, 2026 Adocia SA, Annual General Meeting, Jun 03, 2026. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Dec 08
Now 23% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 11% to €7.14. The fair value is estimated to be €9.32, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 16% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 16%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 15% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 40% per annum over the same time period. Announcement • Nov 12
Adocia Announces Filing of Patent for New Long-Acting Peptides Platform in Diabetes and Obesity - Adoxlong Adocia announced the submission of a patent for a new long-acting peptide platform, and two feasibility studies using its BioChaperone technology with two undisclosed pharmaceutical companies. The new AdoXLongTM platform has been developed to address a critical challenge in diabetes and obesity treatments based on GLP-1 agonists, amylin, or other metabolic peptide: long-acting formulations. Moving from weekly to monthly administration would significantly improve long-term treatment persistence, while reducing the manufacturing capacity required per patient, thereby increasing the number of patients who can be treated. The patented technology is a long-acting peptide platform composed of a biocompatible polymer chemically linked to the peptides without modifying their mechanisms of action. Pharmaceutical products derived from this technology are low viscosity aqueous solutions compatible with standard injection devices and administered subcutaneously using 29 Gauge or smaller needles. The technology is designed to offer a long circulating peptide over at least one month. The technology can be applied to a variety of peptides such as GLP-1, GIP, amylin, or dual/triple agonists - including semaglutide, tirzepatide, cagrilintide - with the possibility to combine these modified peptides with each other. Positive preliminary in vitro and in vivo results have been obtained with AdoXLong®? applied to semaglutide. The patent application is expected to provide worldwide protection until 2046, if granted. The peptides using the technology would also benefit from reinforced intellectual property with extension until 2046. The technology is applicable to both innovative and biosimilar peptides, including Semaglutide, which will become off-patent starting in 2026 in certain territories. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Oct 02
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 104% to €7.71. The fair value is estimated to be €9.80, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 15% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 44% per annum over the same time period. Reported Earnings • Sep 29
First half 2025 earnings released First half 2025 results: Revenue: €2.20m (up 52% from 1H 2024). Net loss: €9.34m (loss widened 4.4% from 1H 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 15% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 24% growth forecast for the Biotechs industry in France. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Sep 16
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 104% to €7.89. The fair value is estimated to be €9.94, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 17% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 19%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 16% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 44% per annum over the same time period. Announcement • Sep 03
Adocia Announces Oral Presentations on Adocia and Biochaperone At Easd, Esb and Podd 2025 Annual Meetings Adocia announced oral presentations highlighting the latest preclinical results obtained on its innovative technological platform AdoShell at EASD and ESB 2025 annual meetings. Adocia will also present at the next PODD 2025 its latest preclinical results on the BioChaperone platform. Oral presentations at EASD et ESB will highlight the latest AdoShell preclinical results: Successful scale up from animal to human device for First-In-Human study; In vitro and in vivo maturation after encapsulation of immature stem cell-derived islets in AdoShell; Sustained long-term in vivo function and efficacy of stem cell-derived islets encapsulated in AdoShell; EASD (European Association for the Study of Diabetes) annual meeting, Vienna, Austria, 15-19 September 2025; Title: ADO12, a non-fibrotic encapsulation system for human islet transplantation without immunosuppression; Presentation: Tuesday, September 16th 2025 - 12:00 -13:00 pm CEST; Session: It's beta cell replacement time (SO 019; 400); Room: Station 04; Authors: Ouardane Jou cannot, Anne-Lise Gaffuri, Madeleine Frelon, Gregory Blache, Julie Brun, Guillaume Lefebvre, Camille Gautier, Romain Besnard, Alexandre Martin, Claire Megret, Nicolas Laurent, Martin Gaudier, Rosy Eloy, Olivier Soula. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Aug 27
Now 24% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 102% to €7.62. The fair value is estimated to be €10.03, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 17% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 19%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 16% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 44% per annum over the same time period. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jul 29
Now 23% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 87% to €7.73. The fair value is estimated to be €10.03, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 17% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 19%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 16% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 44% per annum over the same time period. Announcement • Jul 25
Adocia and Tonghua Dongbao Announces Positive Topline Results of Phase 3 Clinical Trial on Ultra-Rapid Insulin BioChaperone Lispro (THDB0206 injection) in People with T2D Adocia announced that its partner Tonghua Dongbao releases positive topline results on the Phase 3 clinical trial on BioChaperone Lispro (THDB0206 injection), a novel Ultra-Rapid Insulin formulation. Conducted by Tonghua Dongbao, this Phase 3 study (NCT05834868) was approved by the Chinese Regulatory Authorities (CDE1). The randomized, open, multicenter study evaluated the safety and efficacy of THDB0206 injection compared to Humalog in adults with Type 2 diabetes. Results A total of 1,040 Chinese adults with Type 2 diabetes with inadequate glycemic control and using daily multiple injections of insulin were randomized. After 26 weeks of treatment, HbA1c decreased significantly in both groups compared to the baseline. The reduction in the THDB0206 injection group was comparable to that of the Humalog group, meeting the primary endpoint. The key secondary endpoints were also demonstrated, with a statistically significant lower rise of blood glucose after a standard meal for the THDB0206 injection group, compared to the Humalog group. The 10-point self-monitoring blood glucose (SMBG) of patients at week 26, an important supportive endpoint of the trial, confirmed the advantage of this product in controlling postprandial blood glucose fluctuations, with a statistically improved daily blood glucose level. A series of prespecified subgroup analyzes of the primary HbA1c endpoint also fully confirmed the benefits of this product in long-term blood glucose control in patients with Type 2 diabetes. In addition, the safety and tolerability of THDB0206 injection were good. Most of the adverse events were mild or moderate, and the incidence of adverse events and hypoglycemic events were similar to those of Humalog. BioChaperone Lispro was licensed to Tonghua Dongbaoin 2018, as part of a Licensing Agreement covering China and other Asian countries. BioChaperone Lispro is an Ultra-Rapid Insulin, belonging to the latest generation of prandial insulins. It combines Adocia's proprietary BioChaperone® technology with insulin lispro, the active ingredient in the standard of care, Humalog (Eli Lilly). This innovative formulation acts significantly faster than earlier insulin generations, effectively reducing post-meal hyperglycemia, which is a key contributor to long-term complications such as retinopathy, diabetic foot ulcers, or kidney failure. Additionally, its rapid elimination minimizes the risk of hypoglycemia, often caused when insulin level remains high after post-meal glucose levels have normalized. Announcement • Jun 24
Adocia Announces the Presentation of the Latest Preclinical Data from its Innovative Adocia Technology Platform At ADA & IPITA Scientific Conferences Highlight Scalability and Good Translation of AdoShell Adocia announced the presentation of the latest preclinical data from its innovative AdoShell®? technology platform at ADA & IPITA Scientific Conferences Highlight Scalability and Good Translation of AdoShell®? from Human Islets to Stem Cell-Derived Islets. AdoShell®? is designed to implant human pancreatic islets from deceased donors or stem cell-derived islets cell to cure type 1 diabetes without immunosuppression. Adocia preclinical data presented at the International Pancreas and Islet Transplant Association (IPITA) 2025 World Congress, held in Pisa, Italy, June 15-18, 2025, was titled "AdoShell®?, a non-fibrotic encapsulation system for human islet transplantation without immunosuppression". After implanting AdoShell®? containing human islets in mice, C-peptide secretion increased during the first two weeks to reach a therapeutic dose (707+-218 pM) that was maintained in 100% of mice until explantation after more than 2 months. Moreover, AdoShell®? Human Islets was shown to regulate mice glycemia to human levels. In vitro, explants showed a maintained viability and glucose-responsive insulin secretion. This presentation also highlights that AdoShell has been successfully scaled-up to embark the human dose of islets for a first clinical application. The Adocia presentation at the American Diabetes Association's (ADA) 85th Scientific Sessions, held in Chicago, USA, June 20-23, 2025, focused on the application of AdoShell®? to stem cell-derived islets (SCDI). Encapsulation of SCDI in AdoShell®? maintained viability, proliferation state and secretion of insulin similar to non-encapsulated SCDI. AdoShell®? permits the maturation of immature SCDI both in vitro and in vivo. Finally, AdoShell®? enables long-term function and efficacy of SCDI in mice for at least 24 weeks. New Risk • Jun 09
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of French stocks, typically moving 11% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (11% average weekly change). Negative equity (-€3.1m). Minor Risks Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (23% increase in shares outstanding). Market cap is less than US$100m (€62.6m market cap, or US$71.3m). Reported Earnings • May 05
Full year 2024 earnings released: €1.00 loss per share (vs €1.91 loss in FY 2023) Full year 2024 results: €1.00 loss per share (improved from €1.91 loss in FY 2023). Revenue: €12.1m (up 100% from FY 2023). Net loss: €9.32m (loss narrowed 56% from FY 2023). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 14% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 2% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Apr 29
Adocia to Present New Data on AdoShell at Upcoming Scientific Conferences - Showcasing Potential Curative Treatment for Type 1 Diabetes Adocia announced the latest preclinical data from its innovative AdoShell®? technology platform have been selected for presentations at four upcoming scientific conferences. AdoShell®? Islets is an innovative immunoprotective hydrogel designed to encapsulate pancreatic islets, with the goal of curing diabetes through cell therapy without requiring immunosuppression. This semi-permeable hydrogel allows the diffusion of insulin and glucose, while preventing the infiltration of antibodies and immune cells that would lead to graft rejection. Currently, to prevent this normal body reaction, every allogeneic transplant patient must take immunosuppressive drugs on a chronic basis, with significant side effects. AdoShell®? is easily implantable and fully retrievable via laparoscopy. The new data to be presented by Adocia notably disclose the success of the scale-up to deliver the therapeutic dose for the first-in-human study, which is planned to be submitted with the regulatory authorities in 2025. In addition, new in vitro and in vivo data to be presented confirm the compatibility of AdoShell®? with stem cell-derived islets, notably their ability to mature into insulin producing cells within AdoShell®?. The integration of these stem cell-derived islets into technology represents a key step toward broader access to type 1 diabetes treatment through cell therapy, without the need for immunosuppression. Adocia envisions that AdoShell®? could be applied beyond pancreatic cells to other cell types. Data with primary and differentiated stem cells for the release of various therapeutic molecules other than insulin will also be presented, illustrating the possibility to make AdoShell®? a technology platform. New Risk • Apr 09
New minor risk - Financial data availability The company's latest financial reports are more than 6 months old. Last reported fiscal period ended June 2024. This is considered a minor risk. If the company has not reported its earnings on time, it may have been delayed due to audit problems or it may be finding it difficult to reconcile its accounts. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Negative equity (-€7.7m). Minor Risks Latest financial reports are more than 6 months old (reported June 2024 fiscal period end). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (8.4% average weekly change). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (28% increase in shares outstanding). Revenue is less than US$5m (€3.6m revenue, or US$4.0m). Market cap is less than US$100m (€64.8m market cap, or US$71.5m). New Risk • Mar 03
New minor risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 28% This is considered a minor risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Negative equity (-€7.7m). Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (8.2% average weekly change). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (28% increase in shares outstanding). Revenue is less than US$5m (€3.6m revenue, or US$3.8m). Announcement • Feb 27
Adocia SA has completed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of €9.7325 million. Adocia SA has completed a Follow-on Equity Offering in the amount of €9.7325 million.
Security Name: Common Shares
Security Type: Common Stock
Securities Offered: 2,125,000
Price\Range: €4.58
Security Features: Attached Warrants
Transaction Features: Subsequent Direct Listing Breakeven Date Change • Dec 31
Forecast breakeven date pushed back to 2025 The analyst covering Adocia previously expected the company to break even in 2024. New forecast suggests the company will make a profit of €24.8m in 2025. Average annual earnings growth of 64% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Announcement • Dec 26
Adocia SA, Annual General Meeting, Jun 11, 2025 Adocia SA, Annual General Meeting, Jun 11, 2025. New Risk • Dec 19
New minor risk - Market cap size The company's market capitalization is less than US$100m. Market cap: €96.5m (US$100.0m) This is considered a minor risk. Companies with a small market capitalization are most likely businesses that have not yet released a product to market or are simply a very small company without a wide reach. Either way, risk is elevated with these companies because there is a chance the product may not come to fruition or the company's addressable market or demand may not be as large as expected. In addition, if the company's size is the main factor, it is less likely to have many investors and analysts following it and scrutinizing its performance and outlook. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (14% average weekly change). Negative equity (-€7.7m). Minor Risks Less than 1 year of cash runway based on current free cash flow (-€12m). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (10% increase in shares outstanding). Revenue is less than US$5m (€3.6m revenue, or US$3.7m). Market cap is less than US$100m (€96.5m market cap, or US$100.0m). Announcement • Dec 13
Adocia and Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd Announce the Final Dosing in A Phase 3 Clinical Study of Biochaperone®? Lispro Adocia announced the completion of the final dosing of the last Type 2 diabetes patient in a Phase 3 clinical trial evaluating BioChaperone® Lispro, the Company's novel ultra-rapid insulin. This clinical trial is being conducted in China by Adocia's partner, Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical in people with Type 2 Diabetes. The final dosing of the last type 2 diabetes patient is associated with a milestone payment of $10 million to Adocia. This payment will be received in the second quarter of 2025 as per the payment terms of the Licensing Agreement. A second study in people with Type 1 diabetes is nearing the end of treatment, which is expected to be in early 2025. Both Phase 3 topline results, in people with Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes, are expected in first quarter of 2025. Tonghua Dongbao is expected to submit the Marketing Authorization Application to the Chinese Centre for Drug Evaluation (CDE) in 2025. The grant of the Marketing Authorization would lead to an additional milestone payment of $20 million and double-digit royalties on sales to Adocia. The Phase 3 clinical program, conducted by Tonghua Dongbao, involves over 1,500 people with Type 1 and Type2 diabetes in 100 clinical centres across China. The aim of both pivotal trials is to demonstrate the safety and efficacy of BioChaperone®Lispro compared to standard of care Humalog® (Eli Lilly). The primary efficacy endpoints is the change in HbA1c (glycosylated haemoglobin) from baseline to 26 weeks of treatment, with a non-inferiority objective. The secondary efficacy endpoints are 1-hour and 2-hour Postprandial Glucose (PPG) excursions at week 26. BioChaperone®Lispro was licensed to Tonghua Dongbao in 2018, as part of a Licensing Agreement covering China and other Asian countries. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Oct 30
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 50% to €9.09. The fair value is estimated to be €11.48, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has declined by 7.3% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 21%. Announcement • Oct 15
Adocia SA Announces Patenting Stable Combinations of GLP-1 and Amylin Analogs for the Treatment of Obesity and Diabetes Using Its BioChaperone® Platform Adocia announced that it has filed patents of stable formulations of hormone combinations for the treatment of obesity and diabetes using its BioChaperone® platform. Several families of hormones can be used to achieve significant weight loss, starting with GLP-1 (e.g. semaglutide, tirzepatide), but also amylin analogs (e.g. cagrilintide, eloralintide, petrelintide…), which would have the advantage of targeting fat mass, while preserving muscle mass. Future generations of obesity treatments, for which analysts expect the market to reach USD 100 billion by 2030, combine these different mechanisms of action to achieve better weight loss in terms of both quantity and quality. However, this promising strategy is hampered by the incompatibility of many of these hormones, which cannot be formulated into a single product. To avoid double injection, pharmaceutical companies are developing injection devices, such as dual-chamber injectors, but they are limited to single use and are more complex to manufacture. Adocia has patented, among other examples, a stable combination of cagrilintide and semaglutide (“CagriSema”, amylin analog and GLP-1 receptor agonist respectively, Novo Nordisk) with BioChaperone®, which could be administered in standard single- and multiple-use auto-injectors or pens, representing an improvement over a dual-chamber device. The value of Adocia's innovation also lies in the intellectual property generated, which aims to extend the protection of these combinations by several years. The patent applications filed aim to provide worldwide protection for the combinations covered until 2045. Reported Earnings • Sep 25
First half 2024 earnings released: €0.62 loss per share (vs €1.03 loss in 1H 2023) First half 2024 results: €0.62 loss per share (improved from €1.03 loss in 1H 2023). Revenue: €1.45m (down 63% from 1H 2023). Net loss: €8.95m (loss narrowed 4.8% from 1H 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 70% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 36% growth forecast for the Biotechs industry in France. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 21% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 17% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. New Risk • Sep 20
New minor risk - Revenue size The company makes less than US$5m in revenue. Total revenue: €3.6m (US$4.0m) This is considered a minor risk. Companies with a small amount of revenue are most likely businesses that have not yet released a product to market or are simply a very small company without a wide reach. Either way, risk is elevated with these companies because there is a chance the product may not come to fruition or the company's addressable market or demand may not be as large as expected. In addition, if the company's size is the main factor, it is less likely to have many investors and analysts following it and scrutinizing its performance and outlook. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (12% average weekly change). Negative equity (-€6.9m). Minor Risks Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (31% increase in shares outstanding). Revenue is less than US$5m (€3.6m revenue, or US$4.0m). Market cap is less than US$100m (€85.3m market cap, or US$95.2m). Price Target Changed • Jul 11
Price target decreased by 35% to €6.30 Down from €9.70, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 7.4% below last closing price of €6.80. Stock is up 82% over the past year. The company posted a net loss per share of €1.91 last year. Announcement • Jun 05
Adocia Announces Appointment of Mathieu-William Gilbert as Chief Operating Officer Adocia SA announced the appointment of Mathieu-William Gilbert as Chief Operating Officer (COO). Mathieu joins Adocia after serving as Vice-President Strategic Projects of International Commercial Operations at Novo Nordisk. Prior to this, he held the position of Vice President & General Manager of six Latin American countries, with responsibility for all Novo Nordisk activities in the region, as well as the establishment of the Obesity franchise and the commercial launch of Ozempic®. Mathieu began his career with KPMG and Sanofi Aventis, in internal control and auditing, before joining Novo Nordisk's finance functions and being appointed CFO of Algeria and then of the Latin American region. Throughout his career, Mathieu has been passionate about innovative solutions for patients and leading his teams to success. His appointment reflects Adocia's commitment to strengthening its management team and reinforcing its position as an innovative company in the field of diabetes and obesity. Board Change • Jun 02
Insufficient new directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 1 experienced director. 11 highly experienced directors. Independent Director Stephane Boissel was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2021. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Insufficient board refreshment. Announcement • May 16
Adocia SA announced that it has received €2 million in funding On May 14, 2024, Adocia SA closed the transaction. Announcement • May 09
Adocia SA, Annual General Meeting, Jun 13, 2024 Adocia SA, Annual General Meeting, Jun 13, 2024. Location: 2 rue de saint florentin, paris France Reported Earnings • Apr 26
Full year 2023 earnings released Full year 2023 results: Revenue: €6.05m (down 65% from FY 2022). Net loss: €21.2m (loss widened 207% from FY 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 84% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 32% growth forecast for the Biotechs industry in France. Reported Earnings • Apr 25
Third quarter 2023 earnings released Third quarter 2023 results: Revenue: €1.07m (down 69% from 3Q 2022). Net loss: €5.89m (loss widened 5.5% from 3Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 83% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 37% growth forecast for the Biotechs industry in France. New Risk • Apr 07
New minor risk - Financial data availability The company's latest financial reports are more than 6 months old. Last reported fiscal period ended June 2023. This is considered a minor risk. If the company has not reported its earnings on time, it may have been delayed due to audit problems or it may be finding it difficult to reconcile its accounts. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Negative equity (-€18m). Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (58% increase in shares outstanding). Minor Risks Latest financial reports are more than 6 months old (reported June 2023 fiscal period end). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (8.4% average weekly change). Price Target Changed • Nov 17
Price target increased by 73% to €9.70 Up from €5.60, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 9.2% above last closing price of €8.88. Stock is up 141% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €1.05 next year compared to a net loss per share of €0.86 last year. Announcement • Nov 10
Adocia Reveals Promising Preclinical Data on Adocia Islets for Cell Therapy of Diabetes Adocia disclosed additional results on AdoShell Islets during recent international congresses. Islet transplantation has long been recognized as an effective treatment for Type 1 Diabetes (T1D). However, the limitations imposed by the requirement for immunosuppression have hindered its widespread application. Adocia has set out to overcome this hurdle and has developed AdoShell Islets, an implantable and fullyretrievable scaffold for islet transplantation that eliminates the need for immunosuppression drugs while ensuring the success of the transplantation procedure. AdoShell is based on a permselective hydrogel scaffold, reinforced by a mechanical frame, specifically designed to facilitate the diffusion of insulin while effectively preventing the invasion of immune cells. This innovative biomaterial, comprised of 95% water, is synthesized using non-degradable polymers cross-linked by bio-orthogonal click chemistry. This technology is protected via three patent applications4. Human islets encapsulated in AdoShell®? scaffold maintain, in vitro, a gluco-responsive insulin secretion comparable to naked islets. The outcomes achieved by AdoShell®? Islets in preclinical trials hold true promises for people with T1D. This technology could not only obviate the need for immunosuppressive but also ensure extended functionality, and outstanding biocompatibility. The potential of AdoShell®? Islet Islets could have a fundamental impact on the lives of millions of people living with diabetes and the way approach its treatment. AdoShell®? is committed to advancing the development of AdoShell®?, making it one of its strategic priorities. Adocia is actively working towards initiating clinical trials to bring this technology to patients as quickly and safely as possible. Adocia is preparing interactions with the EMA (European Medicines Agency) to validate the proposed development plan. AdoShell®?Islets could then be tested in clinics by the end of 2024. Preclinical data generated so far trigger interest from the scientific community and pharmaceutical industry. In parallel, AdoShell®? scaff old, as a technology platform, is being considered for applications with stem cells and in other therapeutic areas (Parkinson disease, hemophilia, oncology, etc.). The physical barrier formed by AdoShell®? allows the implanted cells to be invisible to the host's immune system while allowing the necessary physiological exchanges to occur for the survival and function of the islets. AdoShell®? Is lets is easily implantable through a minimally invasive surgery (laparoscopy) and is fullyretrievable. This biomaterial has demonstrated to be biocompatible and non-fibrotic. New Risk • Oct 20
New major risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 63% This is considered a major risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (20% average weekly change). Negative equity (-€18m). Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (63% increase in shares outstanding). Reported Earnings • Sep 19
First half 2023 earnings released First half 2023 results: Revenue: €3.90m (down 63% from 1H 2022). Net loss: €9.39m (down 321% from profit in 1H 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 60% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 26% growth forecast for the Biotechs industry in France. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 38% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 2% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Jul 07
Adocia SA announced that it expects to receive €10 million in funding from Bpifrance Investissement SAS, Vester Finance SA and other investors Adocia SA announced a private placement of €10 million on July 5, 2023. The company will raise €5 million in common shares from Gérard Soula, Gérard Soula, Chairman of company Board of Directors, new investor Bpifrance Investissement SAS and in addition it will issue of €5 million in convertible bonds, to which new investor Vester Finance SA and European investors are investing in a single tranche. The company obtained the commitment of all investors for these two fund-raising operations, and they are working on their implementation. The conditions of these operations will be defined at a later date, in accordance with the resolutions approved at the last Annual General Meeting and will be the subject of an ad hoc communication as soon as they are finalized. Price Target Changed • Jun 28
Price target decreased by 35% to €5.60 Down from €8.60, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 41% above last closing price of €3.96. Stock is down 12% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €1.86 next year compared to a net loss per share of €0.86 last year. Price Target Changed • Nov 16
Price target increased to €9.80 Up from €8.60, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 158% above last closing price of €3.80. Stock is down 58% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of €1.86 next year compared to a net loss per share of €3.22 last year. Reported Earnings • Sep 20
First half 2022 earnings released: EPS: €0 (vs €1.51 loss in 1H 2021) First half 2022 results: EPS: €0 (improved from €1.51 loss in 1H 2021). Revenue: €10.4m (up 312% from 1H 2021). Net income: €4.25m (up €14.9m from 1H 2021). Profit margin: 41% (up from net loss in 1H 2021). The move to profitability was primarily driven by higher revenue. Breakeven Date Change • May 19
Forecast breakeven date moved forward to 2022 The 2 analysts covering Adocia previously expected the company to break even in 2023. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a profit of €12.6m in 2022. Board Change • Apr 27
Insufficient new directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 7 experienced directors. 5 highly experienced directors. Chairman of Diabetes Medical Advisory Board Jay Skyler was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2016. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Insufficient board refreshment. Reported Earnings • Apr 21
Full year 2021 earnings released Full year 2021 results: Revenue: €6.06m (down 11% from FY 2020). Net loss: €22.8m (loss narrowed 2.4% from FY 2020). Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 577%, compared to a 282% growth forecast for the pharmaceuticals industry in France. Reported Earnings • Sep 09
First half 2021 earnings released The company reported a soft first half result with weaker revenues and control over costs, although losses reduced. First half 2021 results: Revenue: €2.53m (down 29% from 1H 2020). Net loss: €10.6m (loss narrowed 11% from 1H 2020). Reported Earnings • Mar 21
Full year 2020 earnings released: €3.30 loss per share (vs €2.68 loss in FY 2019) The company reported a poor full year result with increased losses, weaker revenues and weaker control over costs. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: €6.83m (down 16% from FY 2019). Net loss: €23.3m (loss widened 25% from FY 2019). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 57% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 9% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 09
New 90-day high: €8.65 The company is up 16% from its price of €7.47 on 09 October 2020. The French market is up 14% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. However, it underperformed the Biotechs industry, which is up 22% over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 15
New 90-day high: €8.35 The company is up 2.0% from its price of €8.17 on 15 September 2020. The French market is up 10.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Biotechs industry, which is up 31% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €1.56 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 26
New 90-day low: €7.05 The company is down 12% from its price of €8.05 on 28 July 2020. The French market is up 1.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Biotechs industry, which is up 15% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €1.03 per share. Major Estimate Revision • Oct 22
Analysts update estimates The 2020 consensus revenue estimate was lowered from €38.3m to €27.6m. Earning per share (EPS) estimate was unchanged from the last update at -€2.25. The Biotechs industry in France is expected to see an average net income growth of 11% next year. The consensus price target of €14.00 was unchanged from the last update. Share price is up 1.9% to €7.57 over the past week. Is New 90 Day High Low • Sep 30
New 90-day low: €7.38 The company is down 11% from its price of €8.26 on 02 July 2020. The French market is down 1.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Biotechs industry, which is down 2.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €1.03 per share.